Demographic shares of the electorate:
| 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whites | 77% | 79% | 75% | 79% | 74% | 75% | 72% |
| Non-whites | 23 | 21 | 25 | 21 | 26 | 25 | 28 |
[David Wasserman Cook Political Report 9/8/21]
Voters were asked whether the Democratic and Republican Parties are headed in the right direction or on the wrong track.
Democratic Party
| 2017 | 2021 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| All Voters | Right Direction | 32% | 45% |
| Wrong Track | 49% | 47% | |
| Democrats | Right Direction | 61% | 82% |
| Wrong Track | 24% | 11% | |
| Independents | Right Direction | 19% | 31% |
| Wrong Track | 52% | 55% | |
| Republicans | Right Direction | 15% | 11% |
| Wrong Track | 72% | 84% |
Republican Party
| 2017 | 2021 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| All Voters | Right Direction | 34% | 36% |
| Wrong Track | 53% | 53% | |
| Democrats | Right Direction | 13% | 17% |
| Wrong Track | 79% | 74% | |
| Independents | Right Direction | 22% | 27% |
| Wrong Track | 56% | 55% | |
| Republicans | Right Direction | 66% | 64% |
| Wrong Track | 24% | 27% |
[Morning Consult 7/26/21]
In 7 out of the last 8 elections, the public voted for change. Since 2006, the party in power has suffered significant midterm election losses. With only two exceptions – 1998 and 2002 – the party out of power has picked up seats in every midterm election since World War II. [Doug Sosnik – Axios 8/9/21]
Presidential approval is the best predictor of whether the incumbent party gains or loses seats.
| Job approval | Average change |
|---|---|
| over 60% | + 1 seat |
| 49-59% | – 12 seats |
| Under 49% | – 39 seats |
[Public Opinion Strategies]
The following are the favorability ratings for a variety of political leaders
based on the Real Clear Politics averages for August 31, 2021.
| Favorable | Unfavorable | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 46.4 | 49.2 |
| Donald Trump | 41.3 | 52 |
| Kamala Harris | 41.2 | 49.6 |
| Nancy Pelosi | 34 | 55 |
| Chuck Schumer | 32.5 | 43 |
| Kevin McCarthy | 21.7 | 36 |
| Mitch McConnell | 20.5 | 60 |