2022 Election

The March issue of the Washington Watch included the following statement, “When all is said and done, chances are that the Democrats could lose their control of the House and Senate in the 2022 election.” That statement has drawn more comment than WW usually draws, most of it in disagreement.

The following from Amy Walter of the Cook Political is a statement with which WW agrees.

“We know that job approval rating is strongly correlated with vote share. People who think POTUS is doing a good job, vote for his party. Those who think he’s doing a not-so-good job vote against his party. In the last four midterm elections, those who disapproved of the sitting president voted by overwhelming margins (anywhere from 66 points to 82 points) for the opposite party. Those who approved of the sitting president voted for his party by similar margins. We’ve also witnessed historically low ticket-splitting over these last few years, suggesting that it’s going to be more difficult than ever for a Democrat to ‘outrun’ opinions of Biden.”

2020 Census

The official 2020 population count in the United States is 329,484,123 people. The new census numbers show a significant shift in political power from states in the Midwest and Northeast to states in the South and West.

Six states gained seats and electoral votes – Texas (two seats), Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon.

Seven states lost seats and electoral votes – California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Alabama, Rhode Island, and Minnesota breathed a sigh of relief as they narrowly missed losing a seat. Minnesota beat out New York for the 435th and final House seat by just 89 residents. (WW assumes there will be some legal action on behalf of New York.)

The detailed data needed to draw official district lines won’t be released until the fall.

These changes, had they been in effect in the 2020 presidential election, with the Democratic and Republican candidates winning the same states, would not have changed the result in any significant way. Biden’s win of 306 electoral votes to 232 electoral votes, would have instead been 303 electoral votes to 235 electoral votes. [data from various sources]