The 2022 Election

The March issue of the Washington Watch included the following statement, “When all is said and done, chances are that the Democrats could lose their control of the House and Senate in the 2022 election,” citing yours truly.

One or more of the readers of that issue of the Watch challenged the veracity of that statement. Conceding that the past is not necessarily prologue, here is the information on which that statement is based, considering the first mid-term election of the last 7 presidents, Donald Trump to Jimmy Carter.

Year House of Representatives U.S. Senate
2018 Trump – GOP lost 40 seats GOP gained 2 seats
2010 Obama – DEM lost 63 seats DEM lost 6 seats
2002 GWBush – GOP gained 8 seats GOP gained 2 seats
1994 Clinton – DEM lost 54 seats DEM lost 10 seats
1990 GHWBush – GOP lost 8 seats GOP lost 1 seat
1982 Reagan – GOP lost 26 seats No changes
1978 Carter – DEM lost 15 seats DEM lost 2 seats

In summary:

  • The sitting president’s party lost House seats in 6 of those 7 races and gained House seats in 1 of those 7 races.
  • The sitting president’s party lost Senate seats in 4 of those 7 races, gained seats in 2 of those 7 races. There was no change in one of those 7 races.