Congress

49% prefer that in the 2020 elections, the election deliver a Congress that is controlled by Democrats while 45% prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans. [NBC/WSJ 1/29/2020]

Approval of the Congress generally remains quite bleak.

  Approve Disapprove
Real Clear Pol. 2/11/20 22.4% 65.6%
Real Clear Pol. 1/14/29 22.4% 65.2%
Real Clear Pol. 12/3/19 22.4% 65.6%
Real Clear Pol. 10/29/19 23.0% 64.8%
Real Clear Pol. 9/10/19 16.6% 71.4%
Real Clear Pol. 8/6/19 17.2% 71.4%
Real Clear Pol. 6/11/19 20.0% 69.8%
Real Clear Pol. 1/1/19 19.6% 69.3%
Real Clear Pol. 1/4/18 15.8% 72.6%

[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below.]

As of January 31, 2020, 35 incumbent members of the House are not seeking re-election – 9 are Democrats and 26 are Republicans.

The House of Representatives

2020

  • Democrats 234
  • Republicans 200
  • Independents 1
  • Vacancies 5
  Democrats Republicans
Safe in 2020 181 162
Likely 18 19
Lean 17 11
Tossup 18 8

The Senate

[WW uses Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections for the Senate chart below. When those two organizations do not agree, WW uses Sabato as a tie breaker.]

In 2020, Republicans will be defending 23 seats while Democrats will be defending 12 seats. It is unlikely that Republicans will lose control of the Senate in this election.

The number of people in the “Lean Republican” category have grown from three to five. Other than that, there have been few if any changes since the last issue of the Watch.

  • Republicans 53
  • Democrats 45
  • Independents 2
  Democrats Republicans Independent
Seats not up in 2020 33 30 2
Safe in 2020 7
Coons
Durbin
Markey
Warner
Booker
Merkley
Reed 		13
Sullivan
Cotton
Risch
Cassidy
Daines
Sasse
Inhofe
Graham
Rounds
Moore-Capito
Wyoming (Enzi)
Tennessee (Alexander)
Hyde-Smith 		 
Likely 3
Smith
Shaheen
NM (Udall)		 3
McConnell
Cornyn
Purdue		  
Lean 1
Peters		 3
Ernst
Jones (AL)
Collins
Kansas (Roberts)
Loeffler		  
Toss Up 0 3
McSally
Gardner
Tillis