Super Tuesday is March 3, 2020, 4 days from today.
The 59th presidential election will take place on November 3, 2020, 248 days from today.
Running in the Democratic Primary
28 individuals announced their desire to seek the Democratic nomination for president. As of February 12, 2020, twenty have decided to end their candidacies.
The current or most recent public office or other professional activity of the 28 individuals who announced for president include: 1 Vice President, 8 U.S. Senators, 7 U.S. Representatives, 1 former Cabinet Officer, 4 governors, 4 mayors, 3 businesspeople and 1 spiritualist.
The ages of those who remain in the race range from 38 to 78. The average age of those still in the race is 62 years.
Joe Biden (D) – former Vice President, former U.S. Senator – Age 77
Mike Bloomberg (D) – former Mayor of New York – Age 77
Pete Buttigieg (D) – former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana – Age 38
Tulsi Gabbard (D) – U.S. Representative – Age 38
Amy Klobuchar (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 59
Bernie Sanders (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 78
Tom Steyer (D) – Entrepreneur – Age 62
Elizabeth Warren (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 70
Twenty Have Left the Field
Mike Gravel (D) – former U.S. Senator – Age 88
Eric Swalwell D) – U.S. Representative –Age 39
John Hickenlooper (D) – Governor of Colorado – Age 67
Jay Inslee (D) – Governor of Washington – Age 68
Seth Moulton (D) – U.S. Representative – 40
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 52
Bill DeBlasio (D) – Mayor of New York, New York – Age 58
Wayne Messam (D) – Mayor of Miramar, Florida – Age 44
Tim Ryan (D) – U.S. Representative – Age 45
Beto O’Rourke (D) – former U.S. Representative – Age 46
Steve Bullock (D) – Governor of Montana – Age 53
Joe Sestak (D) – former U.S. Representative – 67
Kamala Harris (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 54
Julian Castro (D) – former HUD Secretary – Age 44
Marianne Williamson – Spiritualist, teacher – Age 66
Cory Booker (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 49
John Delaney (D) – former U.S. Representative – Age 56 (The first person to announce for president in 2017)
Andrew Yang – Entrepreneur – Age 44
Michael Bennet (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 54
Patrick Duval (D) – former Governor – Age 63
If “past is prologue” than the Democratic nominee will be Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg or Elizabeth Warren. The others still in the field, Amy Klobuchar, Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg, Tom Steyer and Tulsi Gabbard may as well leave the race now.
Since 1972, every Democratic presidential nominee has won first, second or third place in Iowa or first or second place in New Hampshire. (Charlie Cook)
Bernie Sanders built the most loyal donor base throughout 2019. Here is a list of the number of “unique donors” each of the candidates had in that year.
| Unique Donors | |
| Bernie Sanders | 1,380,000 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 884,000 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 728,000 |
| Joe Biden | 448,000 |
| Andrew Yang | 367,000 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 226,000 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 215,000 |
| Tom Steyer | 214,000 |
| Michael Bennet | 63,000 |
| Duval Patrick | 52,000 |
| [Washington Post] | |
Below are the fundraising totals through January 31, 2020 of those still running in the Democratic primary as announced by the candidates. Spending totals and cash on hand were not yet available as of February 28, 2020. The candidates are ranked by amounts raised in January 2020.
| Candidate | Raised in First Month of 2020 |
Total Raised through 1/31/20 |
| Sanders | $25.1M | $121M |
| Warren | $10.4M | $81.5M |
| Biden | $8.9M | $69.7M |
| Buttigieg | $6.2M | $82.4M |
| Klobuchar | $5.5M | $30.8M |
| Gabbard | $1.1M | $11.1M |
| *Bloomberg | ||
| *Steyer |
*Bloomberg and Steyer are self-funding.
What are the odds?
| January 21, 2020 |
February 24, 2020 |
| Joe Biden +225 (9/4) | Bernie Sanders -150 (2/3) |
| Bernie Sanders +225 (9/4) | Mike Bloomberg +450 (9/2) |
| Mike Bloomberg +600 ( 6/1) | Joe Biden +800 (8/1) |
| Elizabeth Warren +800 (8/1) | Pete Buttigieg +800 (8/1) |
| Pete Buttigieg +1200 (12/1) | Elizabeth Warren +2000 (20/1) |
| Tulsi Gabbard +2500 (25/1) | Amy Klobuchar +5000 (50/1) |
| Amy Klobuchar +3300 (33/1) | Tom Steyer +8000 (80/1) |
| Tom Steyer +4000 (40/1) | Tulsi Gabbard +8000 (80/1) |
If you want to get on Scott’s mailing list, you can email him at scott@coolmediapr.com.
Debate Audience Size
1st Debate – Miami – June 26 – 15,300,000 viewers; June 27 – 18,100,000 viewers
2nd Debate – Detroit – July 30 – 8,700,000 viewers; July 31 – 10,720,000 viewers
3rd Debate – Houston – September 12 – 14,000,000+ viewers
4th Debate – Westerville – October 15 – 8,300,000 viewers
5th Debate –Atlanta, GA – November 20 – 6,500,000 viewers
6th Debate – Los Angeles, CA – December 19 – 6,170,000 viewers
7th Debate – Des Moines, IA – January 14, 2020 – 7,360,000 viewers
8th Debate – Manchester, NH – February 7, 2020 – 7,860,000 viewers
9th Debate – Las Vegas, NV – February 19, 2020 – 19,700,000 viewers
10th Debate – Charleston, SC – February 25, 2020 – 13,000,000 viewers
11th Debate – Phoenix, AZ – March 15, 2020 — Hosts CNN and Univision
12th Debate – Hosts to be selected – April 2020
The Democratic Primary Schedule
[WW is using the list published by Sabato’s Crystal Ball]
| 2020 |
Number of pledged delegates to be chosen | Delegates chosen to date |
| February | 155 | 155 |
| March 3 | 1,357 | 1,512 |
| March 10 | 352 | 1,864 |
| March 14 | 6 | 1,870 |
| March 17 | 577 | 2,447 |
| March 24 | 105 | 2,552 |
| March 29 | 51 | 2,603 |
| April 4 | 107 | 2,710 |
| April 7 | 84 | 2,794 |
| April 28 | 663 | 3,457 |
| May 2 | 46 | 3,503 |
| May 5 | 82 | 3,585 |
| May 12 | 57 | 3,642 |
| May 19 | 115 | 3,757 |
| June 2 | 215 | 3,972 |
| June6 | 7 | 3,979 |
(The following section is repeated from previous issues of the Watch.)
In order to win any delegates, at a caucus or primary, a candidate must get 15% of the vote, statewide or at the congressional district level.
In the case of pledged delegates (not super or automatic delegates), once the delegate selection process is finished in a state, the state party will send his, her or their names to the DNC’s Secretary Office and that name will be entered into the Secretary’s computer. On the first ballot, each delegate will be “automatically” voting for the candidate they are pledged to and will not have the opportunity to change how they vote.
On the second ballot, that same pledged delegate may vote for whomever he/she/they wish.
The outcome of the first ballot of the 3,768 pledged delegates will be known prior to the first session of the convention. [Thanks to Harold for the above.]
1,991 delegate votes are required to win the nomination on the first ballot of the 2020 Democratic convention.
If no one receives the necessary number of votes on the first ballot, 771 super or automatic delegates are then able to vote on subsequent ballots. 2,375 delegate votes are required to win the nomination thereafter.
The 1952 Democratic Convention was the last time either convention went beyond the first ballot.
The Democratic nominating convention is scheduled for July 13-16, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Republican Primary
Announced/Running
Donald Trump – President – Age 72
William Weld I – former Governor of Massachusetts – Age 73
The average age of these candidates is 72.5 years
Have left the field
Mark Sanford – former Governor of South Carolina, former member of Congress – Age 59
Joe Walsh – former one-term GOP member of Congress from Illinois – Age 57
As of February 11th, seven states have announced that they are canceling their Republican primaries or caucuses in 2020 to “save money”: Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Kansas, Nevada, South Carolina and Virginia. Other states which do not have significant statewide primaries in other offices will likely follow.
There will be no debates.
The Republican nominating convention is scheduled for August 24-27, 2020 in Charlotte, NC.
The General Election
The upcoming presidential election is not, in fact, a national election. The election will be decided in roughly 8 states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and North Carolina. In 2016, Donald Trump won all these states except Nevada and Colorado.
The following are the Real Clear Politics summaries of general election surveys taken eight months before the election.
| 12/9/19 – 1/11/20 | ||
| Trump | Dem | |
| Trump vs Biden | 44.2% | 48.2% |
| Trump vs Sanders | 45% | 48.0% |
| Trump vs Warren | 45.8% | 46.2% |
| Trump vs Buttigieg | 45% | 44.3% |
| Trump vs Bloomberg | 42.5% | 43.5% |
What are the odds?
Here are the odds for who is likely to win the 2020 presidential election as of January 21, 2020.
Donald Trump -160 (5/8)
Bernie Sanders +250 (5/2)
Michael Bloomberg + 800 (8/1)
Joe Biden +1600 (16/1)
Pete Buttigieg +2000 (20/1)
Elizabeth Warren + 5000 (50/1)
Amy Klobuchar +10000 (100/1)
Mike Pence +10000 (100/1)
Tom Steyer +15000 (150/1)
Tulsi Gabbard +15000 (150/1)