The primary/caucus season begins on February 3, 2020, 52 days from today.
Super Tuesday is March 3, 2020, 80 days from today.
The 59th presidential election will take place on November 3, 2020, 324 days from today.
As of November 1, 2019, the Democratic National Committee is essentially broke. The DCCC is in pretty good shape and the DSCC is doing okay.
As of that same date the Republican National Committee is in quite good shape. The NRCC and the NRSC are in reasonable shape.
As of November 1, 2019, taken together the three Republican Committees have twice the free cash as the three Democratic Committees.
The following represents the financial status of the six national party campaign committees as of December 31, 2018.
|Cash on hand||Debt owed||Free Cash|
The following represents the financial status of the six national party campaign committees as of October 31, 2019.
|Cash on hand||Debt owed||Free Cash|
|12/31/18||Dems -$25,297,702||GOP +$19,964,696|
|10/31/19||Dems +$52,838,447||GOP +$104,677,322|
Running in the Democratic Primary
28 individuals have announced they are seeking the Democratic nomination for president. As of December 3, 2019, thirteen have decided to end their candidacies.
The ages of those who have announced range from 37 to 88. The ages of those who remain in the race range from 37 to 77. The average age of those still in the race is 58.
The current or last public office or other professional activity of the 28 individuals who announced for president include: 1 Vice President, 8 U.S. Senators, 7 U.S. Representatives, 1 Executive Branch cabinet secretary, 4 governors, 4 mayors, 3 businesspeople and 1 spiritualist.
Michael Bennet (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 54
Joe Biden (D) – former Vice President, former U.S. Senator – Age 76
Mike Bloomberg (D) – former Mayor of New York – Age 77
Cory Booker (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 49
Pete Buttigieg (D) – former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana – Age 37
Julian Castro (D) – former HUD Secretary – Age 44
John Delaney (D) – former U.S. Representative – Age 55
Duval Patrick (D) – former Governor – Age 63
Tulsi Gabbard (D) – U.S. Representative – Age 37
Amy Klobuchar (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 58
Bernie Sanders (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 77
Tom Steyer (D) – Entrepreneur – Age 62
Elizabeth Warren (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 69
Marianne Williamson – Spiritualist, teacher – Age 66
Andrew Yang – Entrepreneur – Age 44
Thirteen Have Left the Field
Mike Gravel (D) – former U.S. Senator – Age 88
Eric Swalwell D) – U.S. Representative –Age 39
John Hickenlooper (D) – Governor of Colorado – Age 67
Jay Inslee (D) – Governor of Washington – Age 68
Seth Moulton (D) – U.S. Representative – 40
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 52
Bill DeBlasio (D) – Mayor of New York, New York – Age 58
Wayne Messam (D) – Mayor of Miramar, Florida – Age 44
Tim Ryan (D) – U.S. Representative – Age 45
Beto O’Rourke (D) – former U.S. Representative – Age 46
Steve Bullock (D) – Governor of Montana – Age 53
Joe Sestak (D) – former U.S. Representative – 67
Kamala Harris (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 54
52 days from today, the primary/caucus season will begin starting with the Iowa caucuses on February 3, 2020 and continuing thru the New Hampshire primary on February 11, the Nevada caucuses on February 22 and the South Carolina Primary on February 29.
The history of the Iowa caucuses is well described as being full of surprises
According to Matt Bennett of Third Way:
Of the last 10 contested Democratic contests in Iowa, the candidate who was in first place in December polling won only 3 times: Mondale in 1984, Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 2016.
The following candidates won Iowa after trailing in December polling
- In 2004, Kerry won after being in 6th place in December polling
- In 1992, Clinton was 4th in December
- In 1988, Dukakis was 3rd
- In 1972, McGovern was 5th
Jimmy Carter was in 10th place in December 1975 and won the caucuses in February 1976. [Axios AM 12/1/19]
*The Real Clear Politics Average is used for each state
|Iowa – 11/9/19|
|New Hampshire – 11/26/19|
|Nevada – 11/13/19|
|South Carolina – 11/17/19|
The next round starts on March 3rd when 14 primaries will be held. California is the largest state in that group. (There are no published polls from Texas since October.)
|California – 11/27/19|
|Harris (Harris has subsequently left the race)||8%|
Looking at the “national mood” in the Democratic nomination contest, Joe Biden remains at the top of the heap. Bernie Sanders has a hold on most of second place and Elizabeth Warren is in third. Buttigieg has moved into fourth place. (These lists below do not include anyone who receives less than 5% in one of the current national polls.)
|CNN – 11/24/19|
|EconUGo – 12/3/19|
|Politico Morning Con – 12/3/19|
|RCP Average – 12/3/19|
Small donation fundraising has been touted by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Both campaigns have been successful getting multiple donations from multiple donors. They have been so successful that the two campaigns have paid $23.8 million in fees to banks and other payment companies. [Politico/Newsy/FiveThirtyEight Newsletter 11/26/19]
What are the odds?
Here are the odds for who is likely to win the 2020 Democratic nominating fight as of 12/8/2019.
Joe Biden +350 (3.5/1)
Bernie Sanders +350 (3.5/1)
Pete Buttigieg +450 (4.5/1)
Elizabeth Warren +500 (5/1)
Andrew Yang +900 (9/1)
Michael Bloomberg +900 (9/1)
Tulsi Gabbard +2500 (25/1)
Amy Klobuchar +2500 (25/1)
Cory Booker +5000 (50/1)
Deval Patrick +5000 (50/1)
Tom Steyer +8000 (80/1)
If you want to get on Scott’s mailing list, you can email him at email@example.com.
Democratic Debates of the 2020 Nomination Season
6th Debate – Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles, CA – December 19, 2019
- Hosted by POLITICO and PBS NewsHour
- Moderated by Judy Woodruff (PBS), Tim Alberta (Politico), Amna Nawaz (PBS) and Yamiche Alcindor (PBS)
- Live on PBS, Streamed online on Politico and PBS NewsHour digital platform
- Candidates can qualify up to December 12
- To qualify, a candidate is required to have:
- At least 200,000 unique donors with a minimum of 800 unique donors per state in at least 20 states
- 4% support or more in at least 4 DNC approved polls nationally or in early states or
- 6% or more in two DNC approved early-state polls
7th-12th Debates – Locations TBD
- The 7th Debate is likely to be held prior to the Iowa Caucuses
- The 8th Debate – ABC/New Hampshire WMUR-TV – likely on February 11, 2020
- 1st Debate – Miami – June 26 – 15,300,000 viewers; June 27 – 18,000,000 viewers
- 2nd Debate – Detroit – July 30 – 8,700,000 viewers; July 31 – 10,720,000 viewers
- 3rd Debate – Houston – September 12 – 14,000,000+ viewers
- 4th Debate – Westerville – October 15 – 8,300,000 viewers
- 5th Debate – Tyler Studios – Atlanta, GA – November 20 – 6,500,000 viewers
- 6th Debate – Loyola – Los Angeles, CA – December 19 – TBD
Since 1972, every Democratic presidential nominee won 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place in the Iowa Caucus and 1st or 2nd in the New Hampshire primary.
In Iowa, the eventual nominee has been the 1st place finisher 7 times, 2nd place finisher one time and 3rd place finisher two times. [Charlie Cook]
In New Hampshire, the eventual nominee has been the 1st place finisher 5 times and 2nd place finisher 5 times. [Charlie Cook]
The Democratic primary schedule is front loaded. (Charlie Cook)
- In February 2020 – 193 delegates will be selected.
- On Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020 – 1683 delegates will be selected.
- On March 10, 2020 – 402 delegates will be selected.
By March 10, 2020, 2,278 delegates will have been selected. This is slightly more than half of the 4,594 total delegates at the convention.
In order to win any delegates, at a caucus or primary, a candidate must get 15% of the vote, statewide or at the congressional district level.
In the case of pledged delegates (not super or automatic delegates), once the delegate selection process is finished in a state, the state party will send his, her or their names to the DNC’s Secretary Office and that name will be entered into the Secretary’s computer. On the first ballot, that person will be “automatically, voted for the candidate he/she/they are pledged to, and will not have the opportunity to change how he/she/they vote.
On the second ballot, that same pledged delegate may vote for whomever he/she/they wish.
The outcome of the 1st ballot of the 3,768 pledged delegates will be known before the convention is called into session on the first day. [Thanks to Harold for the above.]
1,990 delegate votes are required to win the nomination on the first ballot of the 2020 Democratic convention.
If no one receives the necessary number of votes on the first ballot than 766 automatic delegates are able to vote on subsequent ballots and 2,373 delegate votes are required to win the nomination thereafter.
The 1952 Democratic Convention was the last time either convention went beyond the first ballot.
The Democratic nominating convention is scheduled for July 13-16, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Donald Trump – President – Age 72
William Weld I – former Governor of Massachusetts – Age 73
Joe Walsh – former one-term GOP member of Congress from Illinois – Age 57
Have left the field
Mark Sanford – former Governor of South Carolina, former member of Congress – Age 59
As of October 10th, at least five states have announced that they are canceling their Republican primaries or caucuses in 2020 to “save money”: Alaska, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada and South Carolina.
There will be no debates.
The Republican nominating convention is scheduled for August 24-27, 2020 in Charlotte, NC.
The General Election
The coming presidential election is in fact not a national election in that the election will be decided in five states, give or take a couple more. The five states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and Arizona. More about this in future issues.
How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President next year? The following represent the percentage of respondents who say the issue is extremely/very important.
|Trade with other countries||66%|
The following are the results of general election surveys taken 11 months before the election.
(Note the differences in the Survey USA and Emerson surveys of registered voters which were taken at the same time.)
|Trump vs Biden||39%||52%||39%||52%||Biden|
|Trump vs Sanders||40%||52%||49%||50%||Sanders|
|Trump vs Warren||42%||49%||50%||50%||Warren|
|Trump vs Buttigieg||41%||48%||52%||48%||Buttigieg|
What are the odds?
Here are the odds for who is likely to win the 2020 presidential election as of December 8, 2019.
Donald Trump +125 (1/2.5)
Joe Biden + 500 (5/1)
Bernie Sanders +700 (7/1)
Pete Buttigieg +700 (7/1)
Elizabeth Warren +900 (9/1)
Andrew Yang +1600 (16/1)
Michael Bloomberg +1600 (16/1)
Hillary Clinton +3300 (33/1)
Amy Klobuchar +5000 (50/1)
Mike Pence +5000 (50/1)
Tulsi Gabbard +5000 (50/1)
Cory Booker +10000 (100/1
Deval Patrick +10000 (100/1)
Tom Steyer +15000 (150/1)