In March 1995, Newt Gingrich had been a member of the House of Representatives since 1979 and had just taken office as the Speaker of the House. 85% of Americans knew his name and were able to rate him. Of those folks, 27% rated him positively, 41% negatively and 17% were neutral.
In April 2007, Nancy Pelosi had been a member of the House of Representatives since 1987 and had just taken office as the Speaker of the House for the first time. 79% of Americans knew her name and were able to rate her. Of those folks, 29% rated her positively, 30% negatively and 20% were neutral.
In March 2019, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) had been a member of the House of Representatives for just under three months. 72% of Americans know her name and are able rate her. Of those folks, 23% rated her positively, 34% negatively and 15% were neutral. [NBC/WSJ 3/27/19]
Even if one takes into account the ubiquitous nature of modern communication there are any number of members who have been in the House for years whom very few Americans could name and rate.
Time will tell whether AOC will use her fame productively. So far, her substantive performance has been mixed. She has performed impressively during hearings of the committee on which she sits but substantively careless in some of her public statements. [WW]
Approval of the Congress generally remains in the tank.
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Real Clear Pol. 4/2/19 | 22.8% | 66.8% |
| Real Clear Pol. 3/26/19 | 20.8% | 68.8% |
| Real Clear Pol. 2/26/19 | 19.4% | 70.0% |
| Real Clear Pol. 1/1/19 | 19.6% | 69.3% |
| Real Clear Pol. 1/4/18 | 15.8% | 72.6% |
The majority of candidates that the NRCC is talking to so far this year about running in 2020 are women. About 95 women have been in touch with the NRCC according to the committee’s recruiters Rep. Susan Brooks (R-IN-5) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY-21). [Hotline 3/29/19]
[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below.]
The House of Representatives
2020
- Democrats 235
- Republicans 200
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Safe in 2020 | 184 | 165 |
| Likely | 19 | 19 |
| Lean | 18 | 14 |
| Tossup | 16 | 4 |
The Senate
[WW uses Jennifer E. Duffy of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections for the Senate chart below.]
In 2020, Republicans will be defending 22 seats while Democrats will be defending 12 seats.
One change from the last Watch, Tom Udall of New Mexico has announced that he is not running for re-election.
The hill the Democrats must climb to take control of the Senate looks pretty steep at this point.
- Republicans 53
- Democrats 45
- Independents 2
| Democrats | Republicans | Independent | |
| Seats not up in 2020 | 33 | 31 | 2 |
| Safe in 2020 | 9 Coons Durbin Markey Peters Shaheen Booker Merkley Reed Warner |
13 Sullivan Cotton Risch Ernst Cassidy Daines Sasse Inhofe Graham Rounds Cornyn Moore Capito Enzi |
|
| Likely | 2 Smith NM (Udall) |
4 McConnell Tennessee Kansas Hyde-Smith |
|
| Lean | 0 | 3 Collins Perdue Tillis |
|
| Toss Up | 1 Jones |
2 McSally Gardner |