The 59th presidential election will take place on November 3, 2020.

The list of potential candidates from both parties will be sorted into three categories: “Announced/Running/Formed Committee”, “Testing the Waters” and “Mentioned”.

The reason folks end up in the “Announced/Running/Formed Committee” category is obvious.

The “Testing the Waters” category is for those folks who make some statement or take some action that suggests they are considering a candidacy, such as traveling to various early primary states or announcing in some fashion that they are testing the waters.

At this time, potential candidates are not required to file a campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. The rules relating to limits on contributions from individuals, etc. do apply and internal records must be maintained. If and when, a person decides to be a candidate for president, financial activity for this period must be reported.

The “Mentioned” category is for everyone else who gets mentioned, on their own behalf or by someone else.

When a person is no longer part of a category, a line will be drawn through his or her name in the next issue of the Watch and in the subsequent issue it will be erased.

Every candidate has a history that he or she must be prepared to live with and/or explain as they go forward. This calling to account has begun for several of the current and potential Democratic candidates including Sanders, Biden, Gillibrand and Harris.

A Republican opposition research group, America Rising, “is digging into the career of Connie Schultz, the wife of potential Democratic presidential candidate Sherrod Brown.” [Politico 1/15/19]

This is the second time in U.S. History that more than one woman is running for the same party’s presidential nomination. In both cases the women were seeking the nomination of the democratic party.

The first time was in 1972 when Representative Patsy T. Mink (Hawaii), the first woman of color elected to Congress, and Representative Shirley Chisholm (NY), the first black female congressional representative, sought the nomination.

Mink dropped out early in the race while Chisholm stayed in until the end when she finished seventh among Democratic contenders. [WP 1/27/19]

So far in 2019 four women have joined the chase for the 2020 democratic party nomination. Sen. Kamala Harris (CA), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA) and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (HI). It is possible there will be one or more additional entrants.

Democratic Primary

This list started with 56 people who had at least been mentioned. Now there are 29. 27 people have been erased or struck through.

(Since Twitter is increasingly a vehicle for communicating messages and announcements, WW has added the current number of followers on various candidates’ Twitter accounts. Many of these candidates have two twitter accounts, one campaign account and one an official office account. The bracketed numbers below reflect the number in their non-official accounts.)

Announced/Running/Formed Committee
Cory Booker (D) – U.S. Senator [4,100,000]
Pete Buttigieg (D) – Mayor of South Bend, Indiana [110,400]
Julian Castro (D) – Former HUD Secretary [172,200]
John Delaney (D) – former U.S. Representative [13,100]
Tulsi Gabbard (D) – U.S. Representative [252,100]
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) – U.S. Senator [1,300,000]
Kamala Harris (D) – U.S. Senator [2,200,000]
Elizabeth Warren (D) – U.S. Senator [2,200,000]
Marianne Williamson – Spiritualist, teacher [2,500,000]
Andrew Yang – Entrepreneur – [37,500]

Quit the race
Richard Ojeda, West Virginia [48,500]

Testing the Waters
Joe Biden (D) – former Vice President, former U.S. Senator [3,200,000]
John Hickenlooper (D) – Governor of Colorado [126,000]
Jay Inslee (D) – Governor of Washington [25,300]
Tim Ryan (D) – U.S. Representative [14,200]
Bernie Sanders (D) – U.S. Senator [8,900,000]
Eric Swalwell (D) – U.S. Representative [27,200]

Howard Schultz – Founder & Exec. Chairman, Starbucks [86,300] (Talking about running as an Independent.)
Michael Bloomberg – Businessman and former Mayor of New York [2,200,000]
Oscar De La Hoya – former professional boxer [969,100]

Steve Bullock (D) – Governor of Montana [166,000]
Gina Raimondo (D) – Governor of Rhode Island [25,400]
Terry McAuliffe (D) – former Governor of Virginia [64,500]

Beto O’Rourke – former U.S. Representative [1,100,000]
Amy Klobuchar (D) – U.S. Senator [573,000]
Sherrod Brown (D) – U.S. Senator [55,800]
Mark Warner (D) – U.S. Senator [431,400]
Jeff Merkley (D) – U.S. Senator [99,800]
Bob Casey (D) – U.S. Senator [407,000]
Michael Bennet (D) – U.S. Senator [279,000]

Lincoln Chafee (D) – former mayor, governor and U.S. Senator [19,400]
Eric Holder (D) – former Attorney General [454,000]
John Kerry (D) – former U.S. Senator, former Secretary of State, former presidential candidate [3,400,000]
Eric Garcetti (D) – Mayor of Los Angeles [286,000 in official account]
Bill de Blasio (D) – Mayor of New York City [1,290,000 in official account]

The Democratic nominating convention is scheduled for July 13-16, 2020 at a site to be determined (Miami, Houston or Milwaukee).

Republican Primary

Donald Trump – President

Testing the Waters
John Kasich – former Governor of Ohio

Don Blakenship – Business Executive
Jeff Flake – former U.S. Senator
Larry Hogan – Governor of Maryland
Bill Kristol – Journalist

The Republican nominating convention is scheduled for August 24-27, 2020 in Charlotte, NC.

In the January issue of the WW, I wrote that there would be 102 women in the House and 25 women in the Senate bringing the total number of women in the Congress to 127.

Amy Weiss kindly pointed out to me that in fact there are 106 women in the House including 4 non-voting female territorial delegates. This brings to 131 the total number of women in the Congress.

60% of Democratic contributors to federal candidates in 2018 were women. [Center for Public Integrity – Politico 1/16/19]

Nearly 60% of women voted for Democratic candidates for Congress. [Anna Greenberg 12/18/18]

The following reflects the feelings of women and men toward the Republican and the Democratic political parties. Neither of the two parties are in hot shape.

  Republican Party Democratic Party
  Positive Negative Positive Negative
Women 31 46 39 33
Men 37 40 30 47
[NBC/WSJ 1/23/19]