64% of Americans are confident that votes across the country will be counted accurately and 65% believe that all eligible citizens will have a fair opportunity to vote.
On the other hand, 36% of Americans are less confident that votes will be counted accurately and 34% are less confident that all eligible citizens will have a fair opportunity to vote. [WP/U of Md/12/19/21]
The president’s party usually loses House seats in the mid-term elections.
Starting with the 1946 election, the president’s party lost seats in 17 of the election years (GOP-9/Dem-8) and gained seats in 2 of the election years. (GOP+1/Dem +1)
The president’s party loses Senate seats in the mid-term elections but not in as many election years as are lost in the House. Starting with 1946, the president’s party lost seats in 13 of the election years (GOP – 6/Dem – 7) gained seats in 4 of the election years (GOP +3/Dem +1) and were even in 2 of the election years. [FiveThirtyEight 1/3/22]
On average, since the Truman Era, the president’s party loses more than 29 House seats in his first midterm election. In 2022, the Republicans need to pick up only 5 seats to win back the House.
Here are the incumbent president’s House losses or gains starting with the 1990 election.
2018 – Trump -40
2010 – Obama – 63
2002 – Bush +8
1994 – Clinton – 54
1990 – Bush -8
In the 7 times when the president’s job-approval rating was below 50 percent, his party lost an average of 43 House seats. (Stay tuned) [NBC- First Read 1/3/22]