Approval of the Congress generally remains quite bleak.
|Real Clear Pol. 8/11/20||20.0%||68.0%|
|Real Clear Pol. 7/7/20||23.0%||64.0%|
|Real Clear Pol. 6/23/20||23.7%||64.7%|
|Real Clear Pol. 5/26/20||28.5%||56.8%|
|Real Clear Pol. 4/14/20||29.3%||56.8%|
|Real Clear Pol. 2/11/20||22.4%||65.6%|
|Real Clear Pol. 1/14/29||22.4%||65.2%|
|Real Clear Pol. 12/3/19||22.4%||65.6%|
|Real Clear Pol. 10/29/19||23.0%||64.8%|
|Real Clear Pol. 9/10/19||16.6%||71.4%|
|Real Clear Pol. 8/6/19||17.2%||71.4%|
|Real Clear Pol. 6/11/19||20.0%||69.8%|
|Real Clear Pol. 1/1/19||19.6%||69.3%|
As of 8/12/20, the Democrats are leading the generic Congressional ballot with 47% and Republicans with 42%. [NBC/WSJ 8/12/20]
As a result of the 2020 census, ten states are likely to lose at least one congressional district while seven states are likely to gain one or more districts. If these changes had occurred before the 2016 election, Trump would have won an additional 3 electoral votes and Clinton would have won 3 fewer electoral votes
Clinton 229 – Trump 309
|States Gaining Districts (7):|
|Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)||Trump|
|Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8)||Clinton|
|Florida +2 (from 27-29)||Trump|
|Montana +1 (from at-large to 2)||Trump|
|North Carolina +1 (from 13-14)||Trump|
|Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6)||Clinton|
|Texas +3 (from 36 to 39)||Trump|
|States Losing Districts (10):|
|Alabama -1 (from 7-6)||Trump|
|California – 1 (from 53-52)||Clinton|
|Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17)||Clinton|
|Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13)||Trump|
|Minnesota -1 (from 8 to 7)||Clinton|
|New York -1 (from 27 to 26)||Clinton|
|Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15)||Trump|
|Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17)||Trump|
|Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)||Clinton|
|West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2)||Trump|
“In my life and career, I have often heard it said that so-and-so has real power — as in, it’s said that so-and-so has real power — as in, ‘the powerful Wile E. Coyote, chairman of the Capture the Road Runner Committee’.
“It’s an expression that has always grated on me. In democratic government, elected officials do not have power. They hold power — in trust for the people who elected them. If they misuse or abuse that public trust, it is quite properly revoked (the quicker the better).
“I never forgot the people who gave me the privilege of representing them. It was a lesson learned at home from my father and mother, and one I have tried to impart to the people I’ve served with and employed over the years.
“As I prepare to leave this all behind, I now leave you in control of the greatest nation of mankind and pray God gives you the wisdom to understand the responsibility you hold in your hands.” [Congressman John Dingell 1926-2019, served as a member of Congress for 57 years]
Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) passed away on Friday, July 17, after winning the June 9 primary in his bid for re-election to Georgia’s 5th Congressional District. The Georgia Democratic Party selected party chairwoman and State Sen. Nikema Williams (D) to replace him on the general election ballot. She faces Angela Stanton King (R) in the November 3 election. The winner of the general election will be up for re-election in 2022.
- Because Lewis died between the primary and general election, Georgia law gave the Democratic Party one business day to decide whether to replace him on the general election ballot. The state party accepted applications to replace Lewis on the ballot Saturday and Sunday and chose Lewis’ replacement on Monday, July 20.
- A nominating committee chose five finalists from the 131 applications they received. The finalists were Williams, State Rep. Park Cannon, Atlanta City Council member Andre Dickens, Robert Franklin, and James Woodall. Williams received 37 of the 41 votes cast Monday.
Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA) has called a special election for September 29th (the day of the first presidential debate). The winner of that election will serve until January 2021.
President Trump, when asked by Jonathan Swan what he thought of Congressman Lewis said, “He did not come to my inaugural or State of the Union speeches.”
There will be 38 congressional races in 2020 where two women are running against each other; 35 House races and 3 Senate races. This is a new record. The previous high was 33 races with two women running against each other in 2018.
Currently, 101 House members, 23.3%, are women. 88 are Democrats and 13 are Republicans. 26 Senators, 26% are women. 17 are Democrats and 9 are Republicans. [Forbes 8/5/20]
[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below.]
As of August 24, 2020, 37 incumbent members of the House are not seeking re-election – 9 are Democrats, 27 are Republicans, and 1 is a Libertarian.
The House of Representatives
- Democrats 232
- Republicans 199
- Vacancies 4
|Safe in 2020||183||165|
[WW uses Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections for the Senate chart below. When those two organizations do not agree, WW uses Sabato as a tie breaker.]
In 2020, Republicans will be defending 23 seats while Democrats will be defending 12 seats. It remains likely that Republicans will retain control of the Senate in this election although chances appear to be improving for the Democrats.
At this point, it appears that Senator Kelly Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins are leading in the “jungle” primary for this Senate Republican seat in Georgia. If no one gets 50%, as appears likely, there will be a runoff in January 2021.
In the second Georgia seat that is up this year, the incumbent David Perdue is running even with Democratic challenger Jon Osoff.
The race between Senator Ed Markey and Rep. Kennedy appears to be going down to the wire, the primary is September 1st. One interesting twist is that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, endorsed Kennedy over Markey. There must be a back story which WW does not know.
- Republicans 53
- Democrats 45
- Independents 2
|Seats not up in 2020||33||30||2|
|Safe in 2020||9
N. Mexico (Udall)