49% prefer that the 2020 elections deliver a Congress that is controlled by Democrats while 40.8% prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans. [RCP Average 4/14/20]
Approval of the Congress generally remains quite bleak.
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Real Clear Pol. 4/14/20 | 29.3% | 56.8% |
| Real Clear Pol. 2/11/20 | 22.4% | 65.6% |
| Real Clear Pol. 1/14/29 | 22.4% | 65.2% |
| Real Clear Pol. 12/3/19 | 22.4% | 65.6% |
| Real Clear Pol. 10/29/19 | 23.0% | 64.8% |
| Real Clear Pol. 9/10/19 | 16.6% | 71.4% |
| Real Clear Pol. 8/6/19 | 17.2% | 71.4% |
| Real Clear Pol. 6/11/19 | 20.0% | 69.8% |
| Real Clear Pol. 1/1/19 | 19.6% | 69.3% |
[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below.]
As of April 10, 2020, 37 incumbent members of the House are not seeking re-election – 10 are Democrats and 27 are Republicans.
The House of Representatives
2020
- Democrats 232
- Republicans 197
- Independents 1
- Vacancies 5
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Safe in 2020 | 182 | 164 |
| Likely | 19 | 17 |
| Lean | 19 | 12 |
| Tossup | 17 | 5 |
The Senate
[WW uses Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections for the Senate chart below. When those two organizations do not agree, WW uses Sabato as a tie breaker.]
In 2020, Republicans will be defending 23 seats while Democrats will be defending 12 seats. It is unlikely that Republicans will lose control of the Senate in this election. But there is a way outside chance.
Here are the changes from the last issue of the Watch.
Shaheen from Likely D to Safe D;
Daines from Safe R to Lean R;
Collins from Lean R to Tossup;
Loeffler from Lean R to Likely R.
However, Loeffler is being challenged in the GOP primary by GOP Congressman Doug Collins. Collins was endorsed by a Pro-Trump Super PAC to replace Johnny Isakson who retired early for health reasons.
- Republicans 53
- Democrats 45
- Independents 2
| Democrats | Republicans | Independent | |
| Seats not up in 2020 | 33 | 30 | 2 |
| Safe in 2020 | 8 Coons Durbin Markey Warner Booker Merkley Reed Shaheen |
12 Sullivan Cotton Risch Cassidy Hyde-Smith Sasse Inhofe Graham Rounds Moore-Capito Wyoming (Enzi) Tennessee (Alexander) |
|
| Likely | 2 Smith NM (Udall) |
4 McConnell Cornyn Purdue Loeffler |
|
| Lean | 2 Peters Gardner |
3 Ernst Jones (AL) Daines Kansas (Roberts) |
|
| Toss Up | 0 | 3 McSally Gardner Tillis |