The 59th presidential election will take place on November 3, 2020. 445 days from today.
For the record – as of August 5th, 433 people have filed presidential campaign committees with the Federal Election Commission; 272 as Democrats, 113 as Republicans, 34 as Libertarians and 14 as Green Party candidates. [Ballotpedia]
Running in the Democratic Primary
26 individuals have announced they are seeking the Democratic nomination for president. As of August 15, three of them have decided to end their candidacies.
Michael Bennet (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 54
Joe Biden (D) – former Vice President, former U.S. Senator – Age 76
Cory Booker (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 49
Steve Bullock (D) – Governor of Montana – Age 53
Pete Buttigieg (D) – Mayor of South Bend, Indiana – Age 37
Julian Castro (D) – Former HUD Secretary – Age 44
John Delaney (D) – former U.S. Representative – Age 55
Bill DeBlasio (D) – Mayor of New York, New York – Age 58
Tulsi Gabbard (D) – U.S. Representative – Age 37
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 52
Kamala Harris (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 54
Jay Inslee (D) – Governor of Washington – Age 68
Amy Klobuchar (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 58
Wayne Messam (D) – Mayor of Miramar, Florida – Age 44
Seth Moulton (D) – U.S. Representative – 40
Beto O’Rourke (D) – former U.S. Representative – Age 46
Tim Ryan (D) – U.S. Representative – Age 45
Bernie Sanders (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 77
Tom Steyer (D) – Entrepreneur – Age 62
Joe Sestak (D) – former U.S. Representative – 67
Elizabeth Warren (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 69
Marianne Williamson – Spiritualist, teacher – Age 66
Andrew Yang – Entrepreneur – Age 44
Have Left the Field
Mike Gravel (D) – former U.S. Senator – Age 88
Eric Swalwell D) – U.S. Representative –Age 39
John Hickenlooper (D) – Governor of Colorado – Age 67
63% of U.S. adults say they have been following news about candidates for the 2020 presidential election “closely”. This is a substantially greater number of adults than have expressed that view in any presidential election at this time going back at least to 1987. The previous highs were 54% in 2015 and 53% in 1999.
65% of Democrat/Lean Democrat registered voters have an excellent/good impression of the candidates running for the democratic nomination. This is roughly the same number who held that view at this time in 2007. It is substantially greater than at this time in 2015 when only 51% had an excellent/good impression of the democratic candidates.
Those in the 65% who have excellent/good impression of the candidates, include 71% of women, 55% of men, 63% those age 18-64, 71% of those 65+, 70% of liberals, 75% of those with college degrees and only 57% of those without college degrees.
Those who have an excellent impression of the candidates number 23% in 2019 which is substantially higher than 2007 or 2015 at this time. [PEW 7/18/19]
51% of Democratic primary voters say that in selecting a presidential nominee for the Democratic Party it is most important to them that a candidate come close to their views on issues. 44% say it is most important who has the best chance to defeat Donald Trump. [NBC/WSJ 7/9/19]
The following are the Morning Consult survey results collected from August 5-11, 2019 and the Real Clear Politics average from August 1-11, 2019.
|Entered the Race||Morning Consult 8/11/19||Real Clear Politics 8/6/19|
|Bill de Blasio||5/16/19||0%||.3%|
What are the odds?
Scott Cooley runs a public relations firm called Cool Media Public Relations. His client, SportsBetting.ag, produces odds on just about anything on which you might want to wager including the Democratic presidential primary.
Here are the odds for who is likely to win the 2020 Democratic nominating fight as of August 12, 2019.
Elizabeth Warren +250 (5/2)
Joe Biden +300 (3/1)
Bernie Sanders +650 (13/2)
Kamala Harris +700 (7/1)
Andrew Yang +1200 (12/1)
Pete Buttigieg +1400 (14/1)
Tulsi Gabbard +2000 (20/1)
Cory Booker +3300 (33/1)
Beto O’Rourke +3300 (33/1)
Marianne Williamson +5000 (50/1)
Julian Castro +6600 (66/1)
Amy Klobuchar +6600 (66/1)
Kirsten Gillibrand +10000 (100/1)
John Hickenlooper +10000 (100/1)
Bill de Blasio +10000 (100/1)
Seth Moulton +10000 (100/1)
Jay Inslee +10000 (100/1)
Michael Bennet +10000 (100/1)
If you want to get on Scott’s mailing list, you can email him at firstname.lastname@example.org.
In an August Morning Consult survey, respondents were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of each of the Democratic candidates.
Biden and Sanders had the highest favorability scores of 75% and 73% respectively. De Blasio had the highest unfavorability score of 26%. Leading the list of candidates who respondents had not heard of were Steyer at 53% and Inslee at 44%.
All of the other Democratic candidates had favorability ratings of 36% or less.
Democratic Debates of the 2020 Nomination Season
Third Debate – September 12 & 13 in Houston TX at Texas Southern University an HBCU – TV by ABC and Univision. To qualify candidates must have received 130,000 unique money contributions and achieved at least 2% in four qualifying polls. As of August 12th, 9 candidates have qualified.
Fourth Debate – October, time and place TBD. Those who qualify for the third debate will also be qualified for this October debate.
Fifth Debate – November, time and place TBD
Sixth Debate – December, time and place TBD
7th-12th Debates – TBD
1st Debate – Miami
June 26 – 15,300,000 viewers
June 27 – 18,000,000 viewers
2nd Debate – Detroit
July 30 – 8,700,000 viewers
July 31 – 10,720,000 viewers
Below are the fundraising totals through June 30, 2019 which is the last day for which fundraising and expenditure totals had to be filed with the Federal Election Commission. The next filing period closes on September 30, 2019.
|Candid-ate||Entered the Race||Total Raised||Raised 2020 Camp||Trans. from Other Camp||Cash on Hand 6/30|
|Bill de Blasio||5/16/19||1.1m||1.1m||00||0.7m|
|Wayne Messam||3/13/19||No info available|
|Joe Sestak||6/23/19||No info available|
|Tom Steyer||7/9/19||No info available|
(*) Delaney has essentially financed his entire campaign with personal dollars.
The chart above is based on the best information WW has been able to find. It may not be wholly accurate.
The Democratic nominating convention is scheduled for July 13-16, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Donald Trump – President – Age 72
William Weld I – former Governor of Massachusetts – Age 73
There will be no debates.
The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee have created a joint fundraising committee. The Trump campaign cannot accept more than 2,800 per person for each election – primary and general.
As of the end of June the joint effort has raised around $237,000,000. The Trump campaign’s share is $124,369,310 and it has $56,237,365 cash on hand.
The Weld campaign has raised $871,852 of which $180,000 was contributed by Weld personally. The campaign has cash on hand of $299,225 with $226,456 in debt for a net cash on hand of $72,769.
The Republican nominating convention is scheduled for August 24-27, 2020 in Charlotte, NC.
The General Election
At least 17 million people were removed from the voter rolls between the 2016 election and the 2018 midterms according to a new report. The study offered further evidence that certain places continued to more aggressively remove people from the voting rolls. [HuffPost 8/5/19]
The following are the results of three general election surveys taken 15 months before the election.
|Survey USA 8/9/19||IBD/TIPP 8/6/19||Emerson 7/30/19|
|Trump vs Biden||42%||50%||41%||54%||49%||51%|
|Trump vs Sanders||42%||50%||45%||50%||49%||51%|
|Trump vs Warren||44%||46%||45%||49%||50%||50%|
|Trump vs Harris||44%||45%||45%||47%||52%||48%|
|Trump vs Buttigieg||44%||42%||xx||xx||52%||48%|