Approval of the Congress generally remains quite bleak.
|Real Clear Pol. 6/11/19||20.0%||69.8%|
|Real Clear Pol. 5/14/19||22.0%||66.2%|
|Real Clear Pol. 4/2/19||22.8%||66.8%|
|Real Clear Pol. 3/26/19||20.8%||68.8%|
|Real Clear Pol. 2/26/19||19.4%||70.0%|
|Real Clear Pol. 1/1/19||19.6%||69.3%|
|Real Clear Pol. 1/4/18||15.8%||72.6%|
When asked to rate the congressman or woman from their district, 50% approve of the job being done by their representative while 34% disapprove.
An average of 397 House members have sought reelection in every cycle since 1946. Of the 37 elections during this period, 1992 was the election in which the fewest number of House members sought re-election – 368. 1992 was also the year in which the largest number of members–19–who sought re-election lost. That was 5% of those who sought re-election.
The second largest number of members who lost while seeking re-election was in 2012 when 13 members lost their re-election efforts.
Of the 14,684 House members who sought reelection during this 72-year period, only 237 or 2% lost their attempts.
[WW uses Jessica Taylor and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below.]
The House of Representatives
- Democrats 236
- Republicans 200
|Safe in 2020||183||161|
56% of Americans who voted for the Democratic candidate in 2018 are satisfied with the what the Democratic majority in the House has done. 53% of women who voted Democratic in 2018 are satisfied. However, 42% of independents who voted Democratic in 2018 are not satisfied with what the House majority has done. 40% are satisfied. [Winston Group 5/31-6/1]
In the last three national elections, not a single senator who sought renomination lost renomination. One senator lost renomination in 2012 and three lost renomination in 2010.
In the 13 elections between 2010 and 1980, four senators failed in their attempts at renomination but no more than one senator lost renomination in any single election.
Of the 1058 senators who sought renomination from 1946 thru 2018, only 46 senators lost, i.e. 96% of senators who sought renomination were successful.
[WW uses Jennifer E. Duffy of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections for the Senate chart below. Cook continues to score Jones as Toss Up as does Sabato. Inside Elections rates it as lean Republican. WW is leaving Jones as a Toss Up.]
In 2020, Republicans will be defending 22 seats while Democrats will be defending 12 seats.
There are few if any signs that the Republicans are likely to lose control of the Senate in the 2020 election.
- Republicans 53
- Democrats 45
- Independents 2
|Seats not up in 2020||33||31||2|
|Safe in 2020||