Now that the 2018 election is past, it is time to shift focus to 2020.
The 59th presidential election will take place on November 3, 2020.
There is at least one big change in 2020; the California primary has moved from June 2016 to March 3, 2020. Even with that change, the relevance of California may still be limited. The cost of campaigning in California will be beyond the capacity of most candidates and if Senator Kamala Harris is in the game that would be another hinderance to mounting a campaign there.
The list of potential candidates from both parties will be sorted into three categories: “Announced/Running”, “Testing the Waters” and “Mentioned”.
The reason folks end up in the “Announced/Running” category is obvious.
The “Testing the Waters” category is for those folks who make some statement or take some action that suggests they are considering a candidacy such as traveling to various early primary states or announcing in some fashion that they are testing the waters.
At this time, potential candidates are not required to file a campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. The rules relating to limits on contributions from individuals, etc. do apply and internal records must be maintained. If and when a person decides to be a candidate for president, financial activity for this period must be reported.
The “Mentioned” category is for everyone else who gets mentioned, on their own behalf or by someone else.
When a person is excluded from a category, a line will be drawn through their name in the next issue of the Watch and in the subsequent issue it will be erased.
Congressman John Delaney (D) – announced 7/22/17
Richard Ojeda, West Virginia – failed congressional candidate – announced
Andrew Yang – Entrepreneur – announced
Testing the Waters
Joe Biden (D) – former Vice President, former U.S. Senator
Cory Booker (D) – U.S. Senator
Tim Ryan (D) – U.S. Representative
Bernie Sanders (D) – U.S. Senator – “If it turns out that I am the best candidate to beat Donald Trump, then I will probably run”
Eric Swalwell (D) – U.S. Representative
Dwayne Johnson – Actor
Bob Iger – Disney
Howard Schultz – Founder & Exec. Chairman, Starbucks
Mark Cuban – Businessman and Owner, Dallas Mavericks
Kanye West – Entertainer
Tom Steyer – Billionaire philanthropist
Sheryl Sandberg, COO, Facebook
Mark Zuckerberg – CEO, Facebook
Oprah Winfrey – CEO, OWN
Michael Bloomberg – Businessman and former Mayor of New York
Michael Avenatti – Attorney, Attorney for Stormy Daniels
Al Sharpton – Civil Rights Activist
Oscar De La Hoya – former professional boxer
Andrew Cuomo (D) – Governor of New York
John Hickenlooper (D) – Governor of Colorado
Steve Bullock (D) – Governor of Montana
Jerry Brown (D) – Governor of California
Jay Inslee (D) – Governor of Washington
Gina Raimondo (D) – Governor of Rhode Island
Martin O’Malley (D) – former Governor of Maryland
Terry McAuliffe (D) – former Governor of Virginia
Deval Patrick (D) – former Governor of Massachusetts
Luis V. Gutierrez (D) – U.S. Representative
Seth Moulton (D – U.S. Representative
Maxine Waters (D) – U.S. Representative
Tulsi Gabbard (D) – U.S. Representative
Joe Kennedy (D) – U.S. Representative
Beto O’Rourke – U.S. Representative
Amy Klobuchar (D) – U.S. Senator
Kamala Harris (D) – U.S. Senator
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) – U.S. Senator
Tim Kaine (D) – U.S. Senator
Elizabeth Warren (D) – U.S. Senator
Chris Murphy (D) – U.S. Senator
Sherrod Brown (D) – U.S. Senator
Mark Warner (D) – U.S. Senator
Jeff Merkley (D) – U.S. Senator
Bob Casey (D) – U.S. Senator
Lincoln Chafee (D) – former mayor, Rhode Island governor and U.S. Senator
Al Franken (D) – former U.S. Senator
Eric Holder (D) – former Attorney General
John Kerry (D) – former U.S. Senator, former Secretary of State, former presidential candidate
Hillary Clinton (D) – former Secretary of State, former Senator, former presidential candidate
Eric Garcetti (D) – Mayor of Los Angeles
Mitch Landrieu (D) – Mayor of New Orleans
Bill de Blasio (D) – Mayor of New York City
Pete Buttigieg (D) – Mayor of South Bend, Indiana
Julian Castro (D) – former Secretary of HUD
The Democratic nominating convention is scheduled for July 13-16, 2020 at a site to be determined.
Donald Trump (R) – President
Testing the Waters
John Kasich (R) – Governor of Ohio (about to retire)
Don Blakenship (R) – Business Executive
Jeff Flake (R) – U.S. Senator (about to retire)
Larry Hogan (R) – Governor of Maryland
Bill Kristol (R) – Journalist
The Republican nominating convention is scheduled for August 24-27, 2020 in Charlotte, NC.
Here is an early 2020 Democratic primary poll by Morning Consult/Politico taken November 7-9, 2018
Joe Biden 26%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Beto O’Rourke 8%
Elizabeth Warren 5%
Kamala Harris 4%
Cory Booker 3%
Mike Bloomberg 2%
The following folks each garnered 1%: Andrew Cuomo, Gavin Newsom, Steve Bullock, Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand, Julian Castro, Sherrod Brown, Howard Schultz, Eric Garcetti