Congress’ approval rating continues at a subterranean level.
|Real Clear Politics 6/5||16.6%||70.6%|
|Real Clear Politics 5/1||16.6%||72.6%|
|Real Clear Politics 4/2||13.6%||75%|
|Real Clear Politics 3/2||15.8%||72.6%|
|Real Clear Politics 2/4||16.2%||73.9%|
|Real Clear Politics 1/4||15.8%||72.6%|
32% of Americans say that their member of Congress deserves to be re-elected but 53% would prefer to give a new person a chance.
In general, 50% of us would prefer that Congress be controlled by Democrats while 40% prefer Republican control. [NBC/WSJ poll, 6/4/18]
The House of Representatives
[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below.]
- Democrats 195
- Republicans 240
|Safe in 2018||180||157|
The current consensus seems to be that the Democrats are “likely” to take over the House. Estimates by people or entities on which WW relies, range from 50/50 to 65/35.
Part of the Democratic optimism is based on the fact that so far 59 congressional districts – 39 held by Republicans and 20 held by Democrats – will not have an incumbent running for re-election.
[WW used a combination of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to create the Senate chart below.]
There have been a few changes since the last issue of the Watch. Likely Dem grew from 2 to 4; Lean Democrat dropped from 3 to 1. On the Republican side, Safe seats moved from 4 to 5; Likely Republican moved from 2 to 1.
At the moment the best that the Democrats can hope to do is get to 50/50. In order for that to happen, the Democrats would have to hold four of the five seats in the Democratic toss-ups below and the Republicans would have to lose two of the three seats they have in the toss-up column.
- Republicans 51
- Democrats 47
- Independents 2
|Seats not up in 2018||23||42|
|Safe in 2018||16||5|
More than 1,900 men have been U.S. senators. Only 52 women have had that distinction in the history of the country – 23 are serving today. [Senator Amy Klobuchar in Axios, 5/29/18]