During the campaign and again in a tweet on the last day of April, President Trump called for congressional term limits. His proposal would limit members of the House to three terms (6 years of service) and members of the Senate to two terms (12 years of service).

If those limits were currently in force, how many members of Congress would be out of a job in 2019?

318 members of the House will have served three of more terms in Congress roughly, 161 Republicans and 157 Democrats.

46 members of the Senate will have served two or more terms, 23 Democrats and 22 Republicans. [Quorum]

Congress’ approval rating continues at a subterranean level.

  Approve Disapprove
Real Clear Politics 5/1 16.6% 72.6%
Real Clear Politics 4/2 13.6% 75%
Real Clear Politics 3/2 15.8% 72.6%
Real Clear Politics 2/4 16.2% 73.9%
Real Clear Politics 1/4 15.8% 72.6%

While Democrats generally have had an advantage in the coming 2018 elections, it seems to be slipping. The current ABC/WP survey shows that while all adults support Democrats by 50% to 40%, among those who are actually registered to vote that spread shrinks to 4 points, 47% to 43%. In January, the Democratic margin among registered voters was 12 points, 51% to 39%. [ABC/WP, 4/11/18]

The House of Representatives

[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below.]

  • Democrats 195
  • Republicans 240
  Democrats Republicans
Safe in 2018 179 155
Likely 12 30
Lean 9 26
Tossup 2 22

Something Unusual

First, Colorado’s state Supreme Court ruled Monday that GOP Rep. Doug Lamborn cannot appear on the primary ballot in his district due to a problem with his ballot petitions. [Politico, 4/23/18]

Then a U.S. District Court Judge ruled that he should be placed back on the primary ballot. That ruling all but ensures that Lamborn will be able to defend his Republican-leaning seat against GOP rivals. [Denver Post]

The Senate

[WW used a combination of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to create the Senate chart below.]

There have been a few changes since the last issue of the Watch.

On the Democratic side, safe seats dropped from 17 to 16; Likely Dem dropped from 3 to 2; Lean Democrat grew from 2 to 3 and Toss Up moved from 4 to 5 with the addition of the Florida seat.

On the Republican side, safe seats moved from 5 to 4; Likely Republican moved from 1 to 2 with the addition of the Texas seat.

  • Republicans 51
  • Democrats 47
  • Independents 2
  Democrats Republicans
Seats not up in 2018 23 42
Safe in 2018 16 4
Likely 2
Lean 3
Toss-Ups 5
Arizona (open)
Tennessee (open)