The following is data from the 2016, 2012, 2008 and 2004 exit polls relative to the composition of the electorate in these elections. Here are a few reflections on this data.
- The percentage of voters between the ages of 45-64 has fallen.
- The percentage of white voters has declined.
- There has been an increase in the number of voters who describe themselves as Independents.
- Women make up 62% of those who identified as Democrats.
- The percentage of those who describe themselves as Conservative has increased dramatically. The percentage who describe themselves as liberals has increased and the percentage who describe themselves as Moderate has dropped.
- The percentage who say the country is headed in the right direction has dropped and those who say it is on the wrong track has increased.
- The number saying they live in union households has dropped.
- The percentage who say they are college grads has grown and those who say they are not college grads has dropped.
- The percentages who say they make less than $100,000 has dropped markedly and the number who say they make more than $100,000 has just about doubled.
- There has been a slight increase in the number who say they are married and a decrease in the number of unmarried.
- The urban vote and the suburban vote have grown. The rural vote is about what it was in 2004 but is lower than in 2008 and 2012.
- The percentage who say they go to church weekly or more has dropped by nearly 10 points and those who say they never go has grown by about a half.
| |
2016 |
2012 |
2008 |
2004 |
| Male |
47 |
47 |
47 |
46 |
| Female |
53 |
53 |
53 |
54 |
| 18-29 years |
19% |
19% |
18% |
17% |
| 30-44 years |
25% |
27% |
29% |
29% |
| 45-64 years |
44% |
38% |
37% |
38% |
| 65 + years |
16% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
| White |
71% |
72% |
74% |
77% |
| African Americans |
12% |
13% |
13% |
11% |
| Latino |
11% |
10% |
9% |
8% |
| Asian |
4% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
| Other |
3% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
| |
2016 |
2012 |
2008 |
2004 |
| Democrats |
36% |
38% |
39% |
37% |
| Republicans |
33% |
32% |
32% |
37% |
| Independent |
31% |
29% |
29% |
26% |
| Dem |
Male |
38% |
| |
Female |
62% |
| GOP |
Male |
52% |
| |
Female |
48% |
| Independent |
Male |
55% |
| |
Female |
45% |
| Ideology |
2016 |
2012 |
2008 |
2004 |
| Liberal |
26% |
25% |
22% |
21% |
| Moderate |
39 |
41 |
44 |
45 |
| Conservative |
35 |
35 |
34 |
21 |
| |
2016 |
2012 |
2008 |
2004 |
| Right Direction |
33% |
46% |
20% |
49% |
| Wrong Track |
62 |
52 |
75 |
46 |
| Union Household |
2016 |
2012 |
2008 |
2004 |
| Yes |
18% |
18% |
21% |
24% |
| No |
82 |
82 |
79 |
76 |
| College Grads |
2016 |
2012 |
2008 |
2004 |
| Yes |
50% |
47% |
44% |
42% |
| No |
50 |
53 |
56 |
58 |
| Income |
2016 |
2012 |
2008 |
2004 |
| Under $50,000 |
36% |
41% |
38% |
45% |
| $50-100,000 |
30 |
31 |
36 |
37 |
| $100,000 or more |
34 |
28 |
26 |
18 |
| Marital Status |
2016 |
2012 |
2008 |
2004 |
| Married |
59% |
60% |
66% |
63% |
| Unmarried |
41 |
40 |
34 |
37 |
| |
2016 |
2012 |
2008 |
2004 |
| Urban |
34% |
32% |
30% |
30% |
| Suburban |
49 |
47 |
49 |
46 |
| Rural |
17 |
21 |
21 |
16 |
| Attend Religious Services |
2016 |
2012 |
2008 |
2004 |
| Weekly or more |
33% |
42% |
40% |
42% |
| Occasionally |
45 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
| Never |
22 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
A last word about the 2016 presidential election, “…if there was one constant in 2016, it was that none of the usual rules of politics applied in the primaries or general election. It is entirely possible that 2016 was an aberration. It is equally possible that it could have portended the beginning of a new normal.” – Jennifer Duffy, Cook Political Report
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