The 59th presidential election will take place on November 3, 2020. 410 days from today.
For the record, as of September 2, 2019, 840 people have filed presidential campaign committees with the Federal Election Commission; 279 as Democrats, 119 as Republicans, 38 as Libertarians and 17 as Green Party candidates. [Ballotpedia]
Running in the Democratic Primary
26 individuals announced they were seeking the Democratic nomination for president and now there are 20. As of August 28, six have decided to end their candidacies.
Michael Bennet (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 54
Joe Biden (D) – former Vice President, former U.S. Senator – Age 76
Cory Booker (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 49
Steve Bullock (D) – Governor of Montana – Age 53
Pete Buttigieg (D) – Mayor of South Bend, Indiana – Age 37
Julian Castro (D) – Former HUD Secretary – Age 44
John Delaney (D) – former U.S. Representative – Age 55
Bill DeBlasio (D) – Mayor of New York, New York – Age 58
Tulsi Gabbard (D) – U.S. Representative – Age 37
Kamala Harris (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 54
Amy Klobuchar (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 58
Wayne Messam (D) – Mayor of Miramar, Florida – Age 44
Beto O’Rourke (D) – former U.S. Representative – Age 46
Tim Ryan (D) – U.S. Representative – Age 45
Bernie Sanders (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 77
Tom Steyer (D) – Entrepreneur – Age 62
Joe Sestak (D) – former U.S. Representative – 67
Elizabeth Warren (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 69
Marianne Williamson – Spiritualist, teacher – Age 66
Andrew Yang – Entrepreneur – Age 44
Have Left the Field
Mike Gravel (D) – former U.S. Senator – Age 88
Eric Swalwell D) – U.S. Representative –Age 39
John Hickenlooper (D) – Governor of Colorado – Age 67
Jay Inslee (D) – Governor of Washington – Age 68
Seth Moulton (D) – U.S. Representative – 40
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 52
Howard Schultz has announced that he will not be running for president. [WP 9/6/19]
You may have noticed that Stacey Abrams, former candidate for Governor of Georgia, has announced that she is available to run for Vice President with whomever is the Democratic candidate for President. [NYT 8/14/19]
Democratic socialism has been a regular topic of the current Democratic primary activity. What policies do voters consider to be socialist?
| Overall Yes/No |
GOP Yes/No |
Ind Yes/No |
Dem Yes/No |
|
| Medicare for all | 63-20 | 70-18 | 66-18 | 55-23 |
| Free college tuition | 61-21 | 69-18 | 65-19 | 51-27 |
| Single payer health care | 42-30 | 51-26 | 42-30 | 34-33 |
| 70% individual marg tax rate | 40-25 | 56-18 | 39-27 | 29-29 |
| [Winston Group 8/23/19] | ||||
The following are the Morning Consult survey results collected from September 9, 2019 and the Real Clear Politics average from September 8, 2019.
| Entered the Race | Morning Consult 9/9/19 | Real Clear Politics 9/8/19 | |
| Joe Biden | 4/25/19 | 33% | 26.8% |
| Bernie Sanders | 2/19/19 | 21% | 17.3% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 12/31/18 | 16% | 16.8% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 1/23/19 | 5% | 4.8% |
| Kamala Harris | 1/21/19 | 7% | 6.5% |
| Beto O’Rourke | 3/14/19 | 3% | 2.8% |
| Cory Booker | 1/1/19 | 3% | 2.3% |
| Andrew Yang | 11/6/17 | 3% | 3.0% |
| Amy Klobuchar | 2/10/19 | 1% | 1.2% |
| Julian Castro | 12/12/18 | 1% | 1.0% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1/11/19 | 1% | 1.3% |
| Tim Ryan | 4/4/19 | 1% | 0.5% |
| Michael Bennett | 5/2/19 | 1% | 0.7% |
| John Delaney | 7/28/19 | 1% | 0.4% |
| Marianne Williamson | 11/15/18 | 1% | 0.5% |
| Steve Bullock | 5/14/19 | 1% | 0.3% |
| Bill de Blasio | 5/16/19 | 0% | 0.5% |
| Wayne Messam | 3/13/19 | 0% | 0% |
| Joe Sestak | 6/23/19 | 0% | 0.3% |
| Tom Steyer | 7/9/19 | 1% | 0.8% |
The following are rankings of the first choice and the combined first/second choice percentages from the September 16th NBC/WSJ survey.
| 1st Choice | 1st/2nd Choice Combined | ||
| Biden | 31% | Warren | 45% |
| Warren | 25% | Biden | 41% |
| Sanders | 14% | Sanders | 29% |
| Buttigieg | 7% | Buttigieg | 19% |
| Harris | 5% | Harris | 14% |
| Yang | 4% | Booker | 6% |
| Klobuchar | 2% | O’Rourke | 6% |
| Booker | 2% | Yang | 6% |
| O’Rourke | 1% | Klobuchar | 5% |
| Gabbard | 1% | Gabbard | 2% |
| Delaney | 1% | Steyer | 1% |
| Steyer | 1% | Castro | 1% |
| Bennet | 1% | Delaney | 1% |
| DeBlasio | 1% | Bennett | 1% |
| Castro | 1% | Bullock | 1% |
| DeBlasio | 1% | ||
What are the odds?
Scott Cooley runs a public relations firm called Cool Media Public Relations. His client, SportsBetting.ag, produces odds on just about anything on which you might want to wager, including the Democratic presidential primary.
Here are the odds for who is likely to win the 2020 Democratic nominating fight as of September 14, 2019.
Elizabeth Warren +200 (2/1)
Joe Biden +300 (3/1)
Bernie Sanders +450 (9/2)
Kamala Harris +1000 (10/1)
Andrew Yang +800 (8/1)
Pete Buttigieg +1600 (16/1)
Tulsi Gabbard +2500 (25/1)
Cory Booker +3300 (33/1)
Beto O’Rourke +3300 (33/1)
Tom Steyer +4000 (40/1)
Amy Klobuchar +5000 (50/1)
Marianne Williamson +8000 (80/1)
Julian Castro +8000 (80/1)
Bill DeBlasio +12500 (125/1)
Michael Bennet +12500 (125/1)
John Delaney +12500 (125/1)
Tim Ryan +12500 (125/1
If you want to get on Scott’s mailing list, you can email him at scott@coolmediapr.com.
In a September 8th Morning Consult survey, respondents were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of each of the Democratic candidates.
Biden and Sanders had the highest favorability scores of 75% and 73% respectively. DeBlasio had the highest unfavorability score of 26%. Leading the list of candidates who respondents had not heard of were Steyer at 43% and Gabbard, Bennet and Williamson at 38%.
| Favorable | Unfavorable | |
| Biden | 75% | 18% |
| Sanders | 72% | 20% |
| Warren | 64% | 15% |
| Harris | 56% | 18% |
| O’Rourke | 47% | 16% |
| Booker | 48% | 15% |
| Buttigieg | 48% | 12% |
All the other Democratic candidates had favorability ratings of 36% or less.
Democratic Debates of the 2020 Nomination Season
• 4th Debate – Westerville, Ohio – October 15-16 (there may be two nights of debate given that there are now at least 11 people who have qualified)
Those who qualified for the third debate are also qualified for the October debate(s). Additional people can qualify by October 1st. (Tom Steyer has announced that he has qualified.)
• 5th Debate – November, time and place TBD
• 6th Debate – December, time and place TBD
• 7th-12th Debates – TBD
Audience size
• 1st Debate – Miami – June 26 – 15,300,000 viewers
June 27 – 18,000,000 viewers
• 2nd Debate – Detroit – July 30 – 8,700,000 viewers
July 31 – 10,720,000 viewers
• 3rd Debate – Houston – September 12 – 14,000,000+ viewers
At the Iowa State Fair, they administer a decidedly nonscientific poll whereby fair goers drop a corn kernel into a jar corresponding to their preferred presidential candidate. Biden received 24% of the corn, Warren and Buttigieg each got 16% of the corn. DeBlasio received 0% of the corn.
Since 1972, every Democratic presidential nominee won 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place in the Iowa Caucus and 1st or 2nd in the New Hampshire primary.
In Iowa, the eventual nominee has been the 1st place finisher 7 times, 2nd place finisher one time and 3rd place finisher two times. [Charlie Cook]
On September 4, the current standings in Iowa are Biden 28.5%, Warren, 18.0%, Sanders 17.5%.
In New Hampshire, the eventual nominee has been the 1st place finisher 5 times and 2nd place finisher 5 times. [Charlie Cook]
On September 10, the current order in New Hampshire is Sanders 22%, Biden 21.5%, Warren 19.3%.
The Democratic primary schedule is front loaded. (Charlie Cook)
• In February 2020 – 193 delegates will be selected.
• On Super Tuesday March 3, 2020 – 1683 delegates will be selected.
• On March10, 2020 – 402 delegates will be selected.
By March 10, 2020, 2278 delegates will have been selected. This is slightly more than half of the 4,532 total delegates at the convention.
The Democratic nominating convention is scheduled for July 13-16, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Republican Primary
Announced/Running
Donald Trump – President – Age 72
William Weld I – former Governor of Massachusetts – Age 73
Joe Walsh – former one term GOP member of Congress from Illinois – Age 57
Mark Sanford – former Governor, former member of Congress – Age 59
At least three states have announced that they are canceling their primaries or caucuses in 2020 to “save money”.
There will be no debates.
The Republican nominating convention is scheduled for August 24-27, 2020 in Charlotte, NC.
The General Election
Looking ahead…A federal appeals court ruled in mid-August that presidential electors who cast the actual ballot for president and vice president are free to vote as they wish and cannot be required to follow the results of the popular vote in their states. This decision could give a single elector the power to decide the outcome of a presidential election if the popular vote results in an Electoral College tie.
If the Supreme Court chooses to take up the dispute, it would have time to rule on the issue before the Electoral College meets in December 2020 to cast the formal vote for president [NBC News 8/21/19]
The following are the results of three general election surveys taken 13 months before the election.
| ABC/WP 9/5/19 | IBD/TIPP 8/30/19 | Emerson 8/26/19 | ||||
| T | Dem | T | Dem | T | Dem | |
| Trump vs Biden | 40% | 55% | 40% | 55% | 46% | 54% |
| Trump vs Sanders | 43% | 52% | 45% | 49% | 48% | 52% |
| Trump vs Warren | 44% | 51% | 44% | 51% | 50% | 50% |
| Trump vs Harris | 43% | 50% | 46% | 49% | 50% | 50% |
| Trump vs Buttigieg | 43% | 47% | xx | xx | 51% | 49% |