Congress

Congress’ approval rating continues at a subterranean level.

  Approve Disapprove
Fox News 1/23/18 15% 70%
CNN 1/18/18 16% 78%
CBS News 1/16/18 18% 75%
Quinnipiac 1/16/18 16% 78%
Quinnipiac 12/4/17 12% 80%
Reuters/Ipsos 11/28/17 19% 69%
Reuters/Ipsos 10/31/17 22% 69%
Reuters/Ipsos 9/26/17 20% 69%
Monmouth 9/19/17 15% 73%
Fox News 8/29/17 15% 74%
Quinnipiac 8/23/17 10% 83%
CBS News 8/6/17 19% 73%
CNN/ORC 4/25/17 22% 75%
Quinnipiac 3/6/17 18% 20%
NBC/WSJ 2/22/17 29% 60%

Of people who are registered to vote and certain to vote in 2018, 54% say they plan to vote for the Democratic candidates and 39% say they will support the Republican candidates. Non-whites favor the Democrat in their congressional district by a 59 point margin. The same is true of 64% of women, and 51% of independents. [WP/ABC, 1/18/18]

There is a general preference for a Congress controlled by Democrats as opposed to Republicans by 49% to 43%. This six point spread is down from a positive Democrat spread of 11 points found in December. [NBC/WSJ, 1/18/18]

Prospects for a Democratic takeover of the House is improving but it is far from guaranteed. One obstacle Democrats face is that their primary message seems to be opposition to Donald Trump.

[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below.]

The House of Representatives

  • Democrats 195
  • Republicans 240
  Democrats Republicans
Safe in 2017 174 175
Likely 11 26
Lean 9 20
Tossup 4 16

The Senate

The average U.S. Senator’s approval rating dropped 6% points between the 1st and 4th quarter, 52% to 46%, and disapproval went up 2% points from 30% to 32%. [Morning Consult Q4 – 2017 Ratings]

The number after the name of incumbent Senators up for election in 2018 reflects the drop in their approval ratings from the beginning to the end of 2017.

[WW used a combination of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to create the Senate chart below with Sabato as a tie breaker.]

  • Republicans 51
  • Democrats 47
  • Independents 2
  Democrats Republicans
Seats not up in 2018 23 43
Safe in 2018 14 5
Likely 6
King
Menendez (-16)
Tester (- 18)
Casey (-9)
Smith – (appoint 1/4/18)
Baldwin (-6)
1
Tennessee (open)
Lean 3
Brown (-6)
Nelson (-8)
Heitikamp (-8)
0
Toss-Ups 3
Donnelly (-6)
McCaskill (-8)
Manchin (8)
2
Heller (-9)
Arizona (open)