Mike's Washington Watch tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2012://1 2012-01-14T14:09:03Z A collection of analysis, news and restaurant reviews from Mike Berman. Movable Type 3.34 State of the Nation tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2012://1.250 2012-01-13T17:00:00Z 2012-01-14T14:09:03Z 65% say the country is on the wrong track 29% say the economy is getting worse, while 25% say it is getting better 40% think 2012 will be a better year for them and their family [CBS 1/12] If the...
29% say the economy is getting worse, while 25% say it is getting better 40% think 2012 will be a better year for them and their family

[CBS 1/12]


If the test of economic healing is jobs, there seems to be steady progress.

* The BLS unemployment rate for the month of December 2011 was 8.5%. This is the lowest rate recorded since February of 2009, and is down from 9.4% in December 2011.

[Note: this still vastly undercounts the real unemployment rate. Gallup reports the number of Underemployed -- unemployed and those working part- time that want full-time -- at 18.2%. And even this number does not count those who have stopped looking for a job for more than 4 weeks.]

* There have been 2 years of consecutive employment growth in the manufacturing sector.

* There have been 22 consecutive months of private sector job growth.

* 212,000 private sector jobs were created in December 2011.

* 1,900,000 private sector jobs were created in 2011.

* 280,000 public sector jobs were lost in 2011.

* 1,600,000 net jobs were created in 2011, after accounting for job losses.

[Think Progress War Room 1/12]


40% of Americans now identify themselves as Independents. This is the highest number recorded by Gallup in the last 23 years, but only a point higher than the 39% recorded in 1995 and 2007. 31% now identify as Democrats and 27% as Republicans. However, when Independents who lean to one Party or the other are included with that Party, each Party is identified by 45% of the public as its preference. [Gallup 1/12]


In January, 18% of Americans said they were satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. This is a decent improvement from the 11% satisfaction rate recorded in September. The average for 2011, 17%, is the second lowest average in the 32-year history in which the question has been asked. [Gallup 1/12]


87% of Americans believe this is a bad time to find a good job. Women are slightly more pessimistic than men. Those between the ages of 50-64 and college graduates are the most down about this situation, with 90% of each group saying this is a bad time to find a good job. [Gallup 12/11]


When asked what is the most important problem facing the country today, respondents listed the economy in general as #1, at 31%; the #2 mention was unemployment, at 26%, and #3 was “dissatisfaction with government,” at 15%.

Then, when given an opportunity to express what worries them the most about the national economy, 27% said jobs, 16% said the national debt, and 10% mentioned “continuing economic decline/economic instability.” No other reason was in the double digits.

Those three concerns, in the same order, were noted by Republicans, Independents and Democrats in roughly the same numbers. [Gallup 1/12]


Just over 200 million Americans have high-speed, wired internet access at home. Two-thirds of them receive it from their cable company.

90% of people with incomes above $75,000 have high-speed internet access at home. Only 40% of households with incomes below $25,000 have similar access at home. 72% of white households have this form of internet access, as well as 55% of African-American and Hispanic households.

59% of folks with incomes above $75,000 have smart phones. [NYT 12/4/11]


79% of American adults use the internet and 59% of those users (47% of all adults) connect with at least one social networking site. More than half of social networking site users are over the age of 35.

92% of social network users are on Facebook, 29% are on Myspace, 18% on LinkedIn, and 13% use Twitter.

If you can imagine, 52% of Facebook users are on the site daily, while 33% of Tweeters engage daily.

88% of teens and 69% of adults who use social networking sites report that they have “seen people be mean and cruel to others on these sites.” [Pew]


Over the last 13 years the number of people who say they are better off than their parents were at the same age, has fallen from 74% to 69%. [Gallup 12/11]


38% of Americans say they pay more than their fair share in Federal taxes. This has dropped from 55%, who had that view 8 years ago. But 59% believe that so much is wrong with the overall tax system that Congress should toss the whole thing out and start over. [PEW 12/11]


66% believe there are “strong” conflicts between the wealthy and the poor. This is a 19-point increase from 2 years ago. Those having this view include 55% of Republicans, 66% of Independents, and 74% of Democrats.

People in households with $40-75,000 in income have the strongest feelings, with 71% of them describing a strong conflict. Not surprisingly, among 18-34 year olds, 71% believe there is a strong conflict. [Pew 1/11/12]


39% of the “1%” identify themselves as conservative. This is nearly identical to the 40% of the “99%” who identify as conservative. [Gallup 12/11]

]]> President Obama tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2012://1.251 2012-01-13T16:59:00Z 2012-01-14T14:19:04Z The President is 10 months from the day on which the American public will give him his report card for his first term. As he approaches that day, the public’s grade for the job he has done so far is...
The President’s current job approval rating in Gallup is 42%. The following is the list of 8.

  Approve Disapprove
Eisenhower 78 12
GW Bush (II) 59 38
Carter 56 33
Reagan 52 38
Nixon 49 39
G Bush (I) 46 47
Clinton 42 49
Obama 42 50 (1/7-9/12)


Obama’s 52-week High 53%
Low 38%

Obama’s all-term High 69%
Low 38%


The following are several additional cuts at the President’s job approval rating over the last six months.

  NBC/WSJ NYT/CBS WP/ABC CNN/ORC
January 2012 --- 45/47% (CBS) --- ---
December 2011 44/61% 44/46% (CBS) --- ---
November 2011 44/51% --- 44/53% 44/54%
October 2011 44/51% 46/46% 42/54% 54/52%
August 2011 --- 48/47% --- 44/54%
July 2011 47/48% --- 47/48% 45/54%


The only major survey that shows the President having a higher than disapproval rating is PEW, which, in its December survey, has the President’s job approval number at 46% to 43% disapproval.


On his handling of the economy Obama scores a 38% approval rating and a 55% disapproval. The President’s handling of foreign policy is more favorably viewed, with 46% approving and 37% disapproving. [CBS 1/12]


By 41% to 34%, the public has more confidence in Obama and the Democrats in Congress, as opposed to the Republicans in Congress, on potential handling of payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefits in February. [Gallup 12/11]


It is increasingly clear that the White House has shifted into campaign mode. While the line from the White House is that the President is primarily focusing on government action, a casual look at his schedule suggests a campaign tint to the selection of the places he is visiting and plenty of time for fundraising.

]]> Super PACS tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2012://1.252 2012-01-13T16:58:00Z 2012-01-14T14:24:18Z In 1964, when I first became involved in election politics, there were no laws or rules regulating the amount that individuals could contribute to Federal candidates or spend themselves on such campaigns. Cash was often the financial support or contribution...
Corporations were prohibited from playing in campaigns by the Tillman Act of 1907. And, while corporations might push the edge a bit in terms of providing “help” to campaigns without direct expenditure, they were basically not in the game.

In 1971 the Federal Election Campaign Act was enacted. It was basically a disclosure law and took effect in April 1971. I was running a U.S. Senate re- election campaign at the time.

Over time the 1971 Act was extended to limitations on the amounts that individuals might contribute to individual candidates, political action committees, and Party organizations. The prohibitions of the Tillman Act have been incorporated in the Federal Election Campaign Act.

There were, and still are, mechanisms such as 527s and 501(c)(4)s that can do various forms of issue-advertising, which might, in fact, affect campaigns, but no specific connection could be made to a particular candidate. Periodically, some of these groups would spend large amounts of money. An organization called “Swift Boat Veterans” operated in the 2004 Presidential campaign in opposition to John Kerry’s candidacy. Some observers think it had an outsized impact on Kerry’s ultimate loss in that election . Others think Kerry’s loss can be attributed to the fact that he stuck with Federal general election financing.

Then, in 2010, the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision, decided in all its wisdom that limitations on independent expenditures by corporations and labor unions were unconstitutional. From that decision a new campaign finance organization came into being, the so-called Super PACs. These are political action committees that can accept unlimited contributions from individuals, corporations, and labor unions. The groups must file with the Federal Election Commission, and the donors to these PACs are disclosed on a periodic basis. The limit on these groups is that their activity, which can be candidate-specific, must be conducted “independently” of any candidate, i.e., coordination with campaigns is prohibited.

One or more of the Super PACs was active in the 2010 Congressional elections.

The value of these new organizations is currently evident in the attacks leveled against Newt Gingrich in the Republican nomination fight by a Super PAC supporting Mitt Romney. Arguably, its work was the primary cause of the nose dive Gingrich took in the Iowa caucuses.

Now, the Newt Gingrich-supporting Super PAC is setting out to trash Mitt Romney in South Carolina.

The important role that these organizations are likely to have in the coming general election is demonstrated by the reversal of position taken by President Obama as he prepares for his re-election campaign. During the 2008 campaign, Obama asked that no independent organization be created in support of his campaign. One such organization that was in the process of getting started was terminated. (The President was also the first candidate for President who did not take the Federal general election finance grant, effectively neutering that mechanism for limiting the amounts of money spent on the general election campaign. )

Now, two folks who spent a couple of years on the White House staff have created such an organization designed to be active in the coming campaign. There has been no outcry from the White House, and it has to be assumed that the two individuals involved would not have taken this action if they did not think that the Obama position has changed.

To be sure, setting up one or more Super PACs in support of the President makes good sense. While it is assumed that the President will be able to raise record-breaking amounts through the Presidential campaign committee, it must be assumed that numerous Super PACS will spend unlimited amounts of money working for his defeat.

It should not be assumed that the prohibition against coordination between the relevant campaign and a Super PAC is any obstacle to a SuperPAC operating in a way that is 99% effective in support or opposition to a candidate.

There has been some consternation about the fact that it can take some time after a particular election activity, like a primary, before there is disclosure of the donors to these Super PACs. The reality is that information about the donors is essentially irrelevant. In this era of ubiquitous electronic communication, donor information never catches up with campaign-related information, and even if it does, the campaign-relevant information still has impact.

The era of the SuperPAC has, for all practical purposes, eliminated any limitations on campaign spending.

Some express concern that this change represents the “end of Democracy as we know it.” Well, time will tell. However, we should remain mindful that from the time of the election of the first President of the United States in 1789 and the late 1970s, democracy and the election of Presidents worked just fine without the limitations of the Federal Election Campaign Act.

[Note: Apparently Citizens United did not go far enough for those who want to eliminate all regulation of campaign finance. There are three cases proceeding through the Federal courts that would further knock out remaining limitations. In one case that has drawn particular attention, US v. Danielczyk, currently on appeal to the 4th Circuit, a District Court judge struck down the ban on direct corporate contributions to candidates. ]


The increasing amounts of money involved in campaigns gives some people a severe heartburn. My experience over the last 47 years, mostly on the operating ,and to a lesser extent the fundraising, aspect of campaigns, is that it is overrated as a problem.

Of course money is very useful in campaigns, and the easier it is to gain access to necessary funds, the more time candidates have to engage with voters and the other work of position development, etc.

Evidence that the availability of large amounts of money is not the beginning and end-all of success in electioneering can be found in the current contest for the Republican nomination for President.

Rick Santorum has had very little money, yet he essentially tied for first in Iowa, and while he faded in New Hampshire, he has a fulsome campaign going in South Carolina. His early success has resulted in a flow of contributions to his campaign, but not an extraordinary amount.

Newt Gingrich complains that his campaign was sidetracked by the amounts of money that a pro-Romney SuperPAC spent against him in Iowa. However, his star was fading across the country, which suggests that his bigger problem was free media starting to raise questions about his career.

Rick Perry has spent large amounts of the money available to him, yet his campaign has not taken off. His problem turned out to be his poor performance in debates and some of the policy positions which he put forth.

Ron Paul has had large amounts of money available to him and has done quite well, but he has no chance of actually getting the Republican nomination. However, he may be successfully building a movement.

The long and the short of it is, money helps, but if that is a candidate’s primary tool, success is not likely.

]]> The Republican Nomination tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2012://1.253 2012-01-13T16:57:00Z 2012-01-14T15:37:37Z 22 people have been tempted or have joined the race. 16 people have announced they are not running, quit the race, or written it off. 6 people are still running: Newt Gingrich Jon Huntsman Ron Paul Rick Perry Mitt...
16 people have announced they are not running, quit the race, or written it off.

6 people are still running:

  • Newt Gingrich
  • Jon Huntsman
  • Ron Paul
  • Rick Perry
  • Mitt Romney
  • Rick Santorum
1 + ?? remains the number of real players at the moment

The Goal – 1,142 Committed Republican Convention Delegates by the time of the Republican National Convention, August 27-30, 2012.


The contest has begun, and Mitt Romney seems to be riding high. Romney won in Iowa by a thread (8 votes). But in New Hampshire he won by a margin that was more than healthy -- 16.6% points ahead of the second place finisher, Ron Paul. He bested Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum combined by 20+% points.

The next stop on the primary tour is South Carolina. If Romney wins there as well, it is hard to see how he can be denied the nomination. Gingrich and Perry are doing whatever they can, as are the SuperPACs that support them, to bring Romney down to earth, with little concern for any long lasting damage they cause to the person who may well be their nominee.

Even before Romney’s New Hampshire win, 60% of registered Republican voters believed he is most likely to win the nomination. This is an increase from 39% who responded to Gallup the same way in December. [Gallup 1/8]


How they finished.

  Nov 2-6 Nov 13-17 Dec 1-5* Dec 10-14
Gingrich 13% 22% 37% 29%
Romney 22 21 22 24
Paul 6 9 8 10
Perry 11 8 7 5
Bachmann 3 4 6 7
Santorum 2 1 3 4
Huntsman 1 1 1 2
Cain 22 16 -* -
None/No opinion 22 18 14  



  Romney Santorum Paul Gingrich Huntsman Perry Bachmann
Iowa 1 2 3 4 -- 5 6
NH 1 5 2 4 3 6  
SC              
Fla              



Here is the delegates earned count to date as tabulated by Green Papers. Romney – 13, Paul – 9, Santorum – 6, Gingrich – 4, Perry – 3, Huntsman – 2.


The following chart summarizes national polling on the GOP race from mid- July through early January:

2012 Republican Presidential Candidates

Survey

Last date
ofsurvey

Romney Cain Gingrich Perry Paul Bachmann Santorum Huntsman
Gallup 1/10 31   16 6 13 -- 15 2
CBSNews 1/8 19 -- 15 6 10 -- 14 4
PewRes. 1/8 27 -- 16 6 12 -- 16 2
Gallup 1/2/12 24 -- 23 7 13 5 6 2
ABC/WP 12/18 30 -- 30 6 15 7 4 2
Gallup 12/11 23 -- 33 6 8 6 3 2
NBC/WSJ 12/11 23 -- 40 6 9 8 3 5
USA/Gall. 11/17 21 16 22 8 9 4 1 1
NBC/WSJ 11/5 28 27 13 10 10 4 2 0
ABC/WP 11/3 25 23 12 14 9 4 1 1
CNN/OpRes 10/16 26 25 8 13 9 6 2 1
ABC/WP 10/2 25 17 9 17 9 7 2 1
USA/Gall. 9/18 24 5 5 31 13 5 2 1
NBC/WSJ 8/31 23 5 5 38 9 8 3 2
Fox News 8/9 21 6 5 13 6 7 2 2
NBC/WSJ 7/17 30 5 8 11 8 16 3 2


Intrade Prediction Market

At Intrade you can buy and sell shares in the prospects of candidates for President (and other offices). In other words, you are investing on the percentage probability of that event (election of that candidate) occurring.

As of 3:20 p.m. January 12 , here are the bids for shares in various Republican candidates’ prospects. (The higher the bid the more likely the buyer believes the prospects of victory.)
  • Romney 85.8
  • Gingrich 4.7
  • Paul 3.6
  • Santorum 1.6
  • Huntsman 1.0
  • Perry .7
If you are interested, go to www.Intrade.com.


Here are the four tranches of the Republican primary....

1st tranche – January 3 – 31, 2012
2nd tranche – February 4 – March 3, 2012
3rd tranche – March 6 – 24, 2012
4th tranche – April 3 – June 26, 2012

January 3 – 31, 2012
Iowa (c), New Hampshire (p), South Carolina (p), Florida (p)

States in which the primary/caucus has taken place.

Iowa   New Hampshire  
Romney 24.6% Romney 39.4%
Santorum 24.5% Paul 22.8%
Paul 21.5% Huntsman 22.8%
Gingrich 13.3% Gingrich 9.4%
Perry 10.3% Santorum 9.4%
Bachmann 5.0% Perry .7%
Huntsman --    


The following represents the state of the race in the remaining States in this tranche.

Candidate South Carolina* Florida*
Romney 23 36
Gingrich 21 25
Santorum 14 17
Paul 13 7
Perry 5 --
Huntsman 7 --


* South Carolina – Insider Advantage 1/11/12
* Florida – Survey USA 1/8/12

February 4 – March 3, 2012
Nevada (c) – 2/4, Maine (c) – 2/4-10, Colorado (c) – 2/7, Minnesota (c) – 2/7, Missouri (non-delegate p) 2/7, Arizona (p) 2/28 , Michigan (p) 2/28, Washington (c) – 3/3

March 6 – 24, 2012
Of the 19 primary and caucus States that commence their processes during this period, their delegates must be allocated on a proportional basis.

Assuming the Republican contest gets to Super Tuesday, the Republican Party of Virginia has managed to make irrelevant the primary that is scheduled in that State. Requirements for access to the ballot were such that only Romney and Paul managed to qualify. There has since been much gnashing of teeth by a variety of Statewide public officials, but the rules stand, unless some court overturns them.

April 3 – June 26, 2012
The 21 primaries and caucuses scheduled during this period are free to allocate their delegates proportionally or on the basis of winner take all.

In gross terms, 345 delegates are selected in the States starting their processes before March 6th, Super Tuesday. On Super Tuesday, 564 delegates will be selected, bringing the total to 909 delegates, 40% of the total. (However, the number of delegates selected before March 6th may be reduced by 50%.)

[Note: For more information about the 2012 Republican Party delegate selection rules see Washington Watch, Issue 105, December 2011. Keep in mind that the Republican National Convention can change these rules.]

Mitt Romney

Romney seems to have the organization, the resources, and the discipline to follow a plan. The periodic malapropos that flow from his mouth make for interesting sidelights, but are not likely to cost him votes in the primary seasons.

If Romney continues on his current path, he will wrap up the nomination early and have plenty of time to prepare for the general election.

In New Hampshire, with four serious conservative challengers, Romney managed to secure the support of 40% of all Tea Party supporters, 36% of strong Tea Party supporters, 33% of the very conservative voters, 48% of the somewhat conservative voters, and 31% of white, born-again evangelicals.

But there is something not quite right about Romney as a candidate. He is essentially articulate. His speech after he won in New Hampshire was particularly good.

The problem is that he seems to lack personal connection with the folks on whom he must rely for voting support. He is a little too cool, too plastic, too juiceless.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich apparently had no good answers to some of the charges against him in Iowa and had no money with which to respond. The SuperPAC that supports him did not have the funds to mount a campaign. So, he spent a great deal of time attacking the attack ads in person, because he could do that without spending money.

Out of his head came his now famous attack on the judiciary.

Gingrich’s campaign manager, ostensibly speaking for himself and Gingrich, compared Gingrich’s failure to get on the Virginia Republican Primary ballot to the Japanese invasion of Pearl Harbor in 1941.

Gingrich, whose place in the game has slipped , seems to have decided to put away Romney, whose supporting SuperPAC put Gingrich away in Iowa and likely for the campaign. He is doing this with money provided by a wealthy backer’s contribution to his SuperPAC. However, in a strange twist, the backer who provided that money has now let it be known publicly that he did not intend the money he contributed to be used to attack Romney on the basis of his business career.

Ron Paul

Say or feel what you will about Ron Paul, no other candidate in the GOP field is as explicit and forthcoming as Paul. If you ask him a question, you are going to get an answer to your question that represents what he really believes. And it comes without any effort to avoid the subject or use the answer as a springboard to a statement about something that is hardly, if at all, related.

Reminiscent of the days in the 70s when young people boarding buses to go campaign for Gene McCarthy for President were perused as they got on buses to be sure they were clean shaven and neatly dressed, before heading to Iowa, Ron Paul’s younger volunteers were instructed to “cover up tattoos, be clean shaved or have neatly trimmed beards, and wear nice clothes.”

Paul came up with one of the best lines of the year when he said to Romney, during a telephone call congratulating him on his New Hampshire victory, “ I’m nibbling at your hills.”

Paul does not seem deluded by the prospect that he might end up as President of the United States. However, he is effectively using this race as a tool to further the libertarian way that he promotes.

Rick Santorum

Ordinarily there is little that Charles Krauthammer (a former colleague) and I agree upon politically. However, his description of Santorum as a person of “authentic ideology” is pretty accurate.

Santorum surged to the top in Iowa (some folks think he actually won) and then he faded badly in New Hampshire. There is some evidence that the voters of South Carolina are more receptive to him and his message than those of New Hampshire. He must get close to the top in South Carolina or head back home to Pennsylvania, having made a valiant, but unsuccessful, effort.

Jon Huntsman

Huntsman put all of his eggs in the New Hampshire basket and finished a poor 3rd, 22.6% points behind the winner. It turns out that the bulk of his vote in New Hampshire was from Democrats and Independents. He finished last among Republicans primary voters. It is just not there for him.

Donald Trump

While Donald Trump’s voice has all but disappeared from the scene, he did announce that millions of people are waiting for him to make an endorsement in the Republican nomination fight. Meanwhile Trump, who was a Democrat and then became a Republican, has changed his registration once again. He is now an Independent.

The Debates

Of the 15 media-sponsored Republican nomination debates to date, the largest audience – 7.58 million viewers – remains the ABC/ DesMoines Register/ Yahoo News debate on December 8th. ABC also had the third most-watched debate on January 7th. The second most-watched debate was the Fox News debate on December 15, 2011.

Republican nominating process Debates with one or more media sponsors
5/5/11 Fox News - 3.26 million viewers
6/13/11 CNN - 3.2 million viewers
8/11/11 Fox News - 5 million + viewers
9/7/11 NBC/MSNBC/Politico - 5,400,000 viewers
9/12/11 CNN - 3,600,000 viewers
9/22/11 Fox/Google - 6,100,000 viewers
10/11/11 Bloomberg/Washington Post – no ratings available (Bloomberg does not subscribe to Nielsen)
10/18/11 CNN - 5.46 million viewers
11/9/11 CNBC - 3.33 million viewers
11/12/11 CBS/National Journal - 5.3 million viewers
11/22/11 CNN - 3.6 million viewers
12/10/11 ABC/DesMoines Register/Yahoo News/Iowa GOP, 7.58 million viewers, 2.1 million viewers (25-54)
12/15/11 FOX/Iowa GOP [data not available at press time]
1/7/12 ABC/WMUR - 6.25 million viewers
1/8/12 NBC/Facebook/Union Leader - 4.715 million viewers
1/16/12 FOX/GOP of South Carolina
1/19/12 CNN/Southern Republican Leadership Conference


]]> 2012 Presidential General Election tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2012://1.254 2012-01-13T16:56:00Z 2012-01-14T15:41:45Z President Obama’s spokesperson has announced that Obama plans to run against the Congress. Little distinction was made between the Republicans and Democrats in Congress. Predicting the likely outcome of the Presidential election at this stage may be an interesting parlor...
Predicting the likely outcome of the Presidential election at this stage may be an interesting parlor game, but it has relatively little to do with reality. Will the Republican nomination contest be over sometime in February or early March or will it last until June? It appears now that it will be over earlier rather than later.

There are a number of questions, the answers to which will have considerable impact on the election.

What will happen to unemployment and the economy in general between now and the Fall?

Can the Republicans make the election into a referendum on the performance of President Obama or will it be a real contest?

Assuming Romney is the Republican nominee, will it be his vision of the state of America or the President’s vision of the state of America that will be most attractive? Will it be faith in the specialness of the government or will it be faith in the American people that is most attractive?

Some Democrats are “gleeful” about the thought of using Romney’s tenure at Bain Capital as a major point of attack in the general election. At some point , however, Romney and his team will begin to talk about who some of those who benefit from the success of the Bain Capitals of the world.

Surprisingly, it turns out that among the big winners are a whole lot of average Americans whose pension funds are some of the biggest investors. And then there are the charitable foundations who leverage their resources by similar investments.

Charlie Cook may have said it all in his column published on January 14th. “My rule of thumb has been that if unemployment is near 9 percent on Election Day, President Obama would very likely lose. If it’s near 8 percent, he would likely win. But if it’s around 8.5 percent, the race would be a toss-up.”

Having said all of that, the following are some traditional and available markers of where the election is today.

2012 Presidential General Election
Survey Last Date Obama Republican (generic) Sample
Pew 1/8 41 41 RV
NBC/WSJ 12/11 45 35 RV
    Obama Romney  
CBS News 1/8 45 47  
CNN/Op.Res. 12/18 52 45  
USA/Gallup 12/18 50 48  
NBC/WSJ 12/11 47 45  
    Obama Paul  
CBS 1/8 46 45  
CNN/Op.Res 12/18 52 45  
ABC/WP 12/18 49 44  
NBC/WSJ 12/11 50 37  
    Obama Gingrich  
CBS News 1/8 49 41  
CNN/Op.Res. 12/18 56 40  
USA/Gallup 12/18 50 48  
NBC/WSJ 12/11 51 40  
    Obama Santorum  
CBS News 1/8 47 43  


The Electoral College

Here are two cuts that WW will regularly reprint as we head toward the election. 270 Electoral votes are needed to win.

The Cook Political Report – Democrat vs. Republican
Solid Dem 186 Obama  
Likely Dem 0 186 Electoral votes
Lean Dem 35 221 Electoral votes
Toss Up 98    
Solid GOP 159    
Likely GOP 37 196 Electoral votes
Lean GOP 23 219 Electoral votes
The Rothenberg Political Report – Obama vs. Romney
Obama States 186    
Lean Obama 31 217 Electoral Votes
Toss Up 46    
Romney States 191    
Lean Romney 84 275 Electoral Votes



The attack on President Obama by non-candidate groups was in full bloom by the end of 2011. In the 2004 cycle, the non-candidate group advertising did not begin until March of the election year. [WP 12/29/11]

Battleground States

In the 8 Battleground States which have Party registration (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) Democratic and Republican registrations have fallen since 2008, and Independent registration has risen. In those 8 States as a group the number of Independents has increased by 320,657, the number of Democrats has dropped by 834, 197, and the number of Republicans has declined by 334, 608. [Third Way]

InTrade Prediction Market

As of 9:00 p.m. January 12 , here are the bids for shares in candidates for President in the general election. (The higher the bid the more likely the buyer believes the prospects of victory.)

  • Barack Obama 50.6
  • Mitt Romney 42.4
If you are interested, go to www.Intrade.com.

Reuters Breakingviews’ Obama Re-election Calculator

This device for calculating a President’s re-election prospects is adapted from work done by Ray Fair at Yale University. As designed and used by Breakingviews, the “calculator” shows how likely it is that President Barack Obama will win a second term in U.S. elections in November 2012. It is based on annual GDP growth from the last quarter of the year before the election (2011) through the 3rd quarter of the election year; inflation during the same period; and a “swing factor” – defined as the shift in the two-Party vote to/away from Obama.

At the present time the calculator shows the probability of Obama winning re-election at 54%,with a 50.3% share of the vote. [Note: Professor Fair’s most recent calculation has the President’s share of the vote at 50.17% making the election too close to call. - NYT 1/8/12]

]]> The Congress tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2012://1.255 2012-01-13T16:55:00Z 2012-01-14T15:51:10Z Congress finished 2011 with an 11% job approval rating. This is the lowest positive score ever recorded by Gallup. The most negative are Independents, who offer a positive score of 7%. They are followed by Republicans at 12%, and 14%...

The U.S. Senate

The main event that affected the Senate races since the last Watch is the decision of Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) to forego a re-election race. This decision tilts the Nebraska seat from Toss Up to Lean Republican. moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican.


The U.S. Senate

  • Democrats 51
  • Republicans 47
  • Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
Here is how the 33 Senate elections -- 23 Democratic incumbents (includes 2 Independents), 10 Republican incumbents -- look to me at this time . (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. Incumbent in office) Underlining reflects retirement.

Safe Democratic (8) Leaning Democratic (7) Toss-Up (8) Leaning Republican (5) Safe Republican (5)
California Connecticut Hawaii Arizona Indiana
Delaware Florida
 Massachusetts Maine Mississippi
Maryland Michigan
 Missouri Texas Tennessee
Minnesota Ohio
 Montana Nebraska
 Utah
New Jersey Pennsylvania Nevada No. Dakota
 Wyoming
New York Washington
 New Mexico

Rhode Island West Virginia Virginia  
Vermont
   Wisconsin  
       

     


  Democrats Republicans
Seats not up in 2012 30 37
Safe in 2012 8 5
Leaning in 2012 7 5
Total 45 47
Toss-ups 8 (2R/6D)  


The House of Representatives

There are an array of opinions as to whether the Republicans will sustain their majority control of the House after the November election. There are the usual predictions from this stage of the election cycle extolling how well the minority Party is doing in candidate recruitment.

At this time it appears most likely that the Republicans will retain control of the House, but with a lower margin. If that does, in fact, happen, the interesting question is whether Eric Cantor will challenge John Boehner for the Speakership.

WW has regularly reprinted the “House Dashboard” published by the Cook Political Report. The data from January 20, 2011 is from the Dashboard. However, the Dashboard is not being published at this time because of the uncertainties caused by re-districting. Therefore, the chart below (other than 1/20/11) reflects the Cook’s current Competitive House Race Chart through January 2012 . [As always, thanks to “The Cook Political Report.” ] 

The U.S. House of Representatives

  • Republicans 242
  • Democrats 192
  • Vacancy 1 (D)

 1/20/11 6/21/11 8/12/11 12/8/11 1/5/12
TOTAL Dem 193 --- --- --- ---
Solid Dem 150 --- --- --- ---
Likely Dem 27 22 22 18 16
Lean Dem 12 13 17 14 13
Toss-up 10 17 15 21 20
D 4 6 6 8 8
R 6 11 9 13 12
Lean GOP 15 18 20 21 19
Likely GOP 38 42 40 29 31
Solid GOP 183 --- --- --- ---
TOTAL GOP 242 --- --- --- ---


The Rothenberg Political Report has posted a report that deals with the entire House. It reports the following:

Safe Democrat 164
Competitive 78
Safe Republican 191


]]> Restaurant (chocolate): CoCoVa tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2012://1.256 2012-01-13T16:53:00Z 2012-01-14T15:56:42Z Washington, DC: While WW is not necessarily an expert on the question of fine chocolates, this store is a real treat. It is best described as chocolate, chocolate everywhere.

CoCoVa

1904 18th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20009
202-903-0346
www.cocova.comDebbie found CoCoVa (formerly Biagio Fine Chocolate) when looking for a place to buy chocolates for some friends who are chocolate aficionados.

CoCoVa describes itself as “The World’s Showcase of Fine Chocolates” and, while WW is not necessarily an expert on the question of fine chocolates, this store is a real treat. It is best described as chocolate, chocolate everywhere. Around the main sales room there are little glass dishes with tiny spoons and dime size pieces of chocolate, making it possible to taste test a variety of chocolates, the names of which you have likely never heard. Oh yes, there is also some first rate toffee.

There are an overwhelming number of individual chocolates that can be selected and boxed. It can be a box that contains only a single type of chocolate or you can, with the assistance of one of the staff, create a box of chocolates in which no two chocolates are the same. In addition, the staff person creates a “map” which identifies each chocolate based on its location in the box. There are also prepackaged boxes of various chocolates available.

It is possible to order on-line, but it is really worth the effort to go to the store and have a true chocolate experience.

The store is located below street level and is reached by a set of wrought iron stairs.

If you decide to try this festival of chocolate, mention that you heard about it in the Watch.

]]> The Time of Our Lives: A conversation about America, by Tom Brokaw tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2012://1.257 2012-01-13T16:52:00Z 2012-01-14T15:58:35Z WW does not ordinarily recommend books, because WW’s editor does not read that many whole books. However, I did read Tom Brokaw’s latest book and it is worth your attention. I would not try to do it justice by describing...
“What happened to the America I thought I knew? Have we simply wandered off course, but only temporarily? Or have we allowed ourselves to be so divided that we’re easy prey for hijackers who could steer us onto a path to a crash landing?”

]]> State of the Nation tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2011://1.244 2011-12-16T17:00:00Z 2011-12-17T17:21:24Z In mid-December, 69% of Americans said that the country is on the wrong track. This is slightly better than the 73-74% who have had that view since August. [NBC/WSJ 12/11] By 74% to 23% we do not have a favorable...

By 74% to 23% we do not have a favorable opinion of the U.S. economy. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]


The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is 67.7, an increase from 64.2 in November, 60.9 in October, and from the low point of 55.7 in August. It is still below the 74.3 recorded in March. [U of Mich 12/9/11]


The Gallup survey of unemployment through December 11 ticked up slightly to 8.6% from 8.5% at the end of November. Looking at Gallup’s second number, which it defines as “underemployed” (those who are unemployed and those working part-time but want full-time) is at 18.3% as opposed to 18.1% at the end of November. [Gallup]


66% believe that the most important problems facing the country today are unemployment and the economy in general. As of December 11th , 51% of Americans describe the economy as poor, while 10% say it is excellent/good. To consider themselves rich, Americans say they would need a median income of $150,000 per year. In 2003, the median income was $120,000. 30% of folks would consider themselves rich if they made $100,000; 18% would feel rich at $60,000; and 15% say they would need a million dollars or more. (Ed. note: The $150,000 amount is just slightly more than the increase in the consumer price index for period the 2003 to 2011.) In March, 56% of us felt better about our personal financial situation. That has dropped to 49% in late November. [Gallup 11/11 unless otherwise noted]


During the height of the recent recession the individual savings rate rose to 8%. As of mid-November, it has dropped to 3.5%. [WP 11/11] 22% believe the economy generally will get worse in the next year, and 33% say that their personal economic situation has gotten worse in in the past twelve months. [NBC/WSJ 12/11] Data from 2008 shows that, of the top 400 tax payers,

  • 30 paid an average tax rate between 0 and 10%
  • 59 paid an average tax rate of 30-35%
  • 238 had a marginal tax rate of 35% and above
  • 17 had a marginal tax rate of 0 to 26%
[WP 12/11]


76% of Americans believe that this past year has been either one of the worst years for the United States (27%) or, at best, below average (49%). [NBC/WSJ 12/11]


There has been considerable public attention to the wealth gap between the rich and the poor. It is the core tenant of the Occupy movement. However, 82% of Americans say it is extremely/very important to expand the economy. 70% opt for increasing “the equality of opportunity for people to get ahead if they want to.” Only 46% say it is extremely/very important to “reduce the income and wealth gap between the rich and the poor.” 58% of Americans say that the country is not divided into “haves and have- nots.” Interestingly, when asked to choose which group they were a part of, “haves or have-nots,” 58% said they were “haves.” [Gallup 12/11]


By 48% to 46%, respondents believe that the government should promote traditional values. 68% have a great deal/fair amount of trust and confidence in local government to handle problems, and 57% have that view about State government. At the other end of the spectrum, only 31% have confidence in the Federal legislative branch, and 47% have that view about the executive branch. [Gallup 10/11]


While considerable media attention is paid to the role of Wall Street in the country’s current economic situation, the Federal government is blamed for the economic problems facing the country by 64%, while 30% blame Wall Street. Over 70% of Americans trust small-business owners and local business leaders to come up with the ideas for creating jobs in the United States. Only 43% trust the Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress to have productive ideas. 52% trust President Obama to have job creating ideas. 22% of small business owners say that complying with government regulations is the most important problem facing them today. Historically, big government has been seen as a bigger threat to the country than big business or big labor. That attitude has not changed, except that the number of people identifying the Federal government as the biggest threat has grown over the last 45 years. While there is always considerable noise about the threat of big labor, it is pretty clear that it is an also-ran in the minds of Americans.

  1965 2000 2009 2011
Big government 35 65 55 64
Big business 29 24 32 26
Big labor 17 8 10 8
[Gallup 10,11,12/11]



55% of Americans do not have much faith in the media to report the news “fully, accurately and fairly.” [Gallup 9/11]


The social safety net is being pulled apart, loop by loop.


The Occupy Wall Street movement hangs on, but its encampments are being disassembled city by city. So far, the groups who set up camp in New York City, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Boston have been forced to move out, and their housing has been torn down by order of municipal officials. While the movement has not generated enough support to really change government or business behavior, it is interesting how much public attention it has achieved through the actions of a relatively small number of people.


The 1% describe themselves as slightly more Republican, while the 99% describe themselves as slightly more Democratic. However, philosophically there is little distinction between them. [Gallup 12/11]

  99% 1%
Republican 28% 33%
Independent 39 41
Democratic 33 26
     
Conservative 40 39
Moderate 37 41
Liberal 21 20



31% of Americans selected the phrase, “the wealthiest one percent getting richer and the middle class declining” as the most personally disappointing event of the past year. 29% named the “lack of economic recovery,” and 27% named “the failure of Congress to reach a compromise on the budget deficit.” [NBC/WSJ 12/11]


There are striking similarities between the levels of support and the positive/negative evaluations of the Tea Party Movement and The Occupy Wall Street Movement. 27% consider themselves to be supporters of the Tea Party Movement (65% are not). 25% say they are supporters of the Occupy Wall Street Movement (67% are not). 27% say they are positive about the Tea Party Movement. 27% say they are positive about the Occupy Wall Street Movement. 43% are negative about the Tea Party Movement and 44% are negative about the Occupy Wall Street Movement. There is, of course, at least one big difference between the two movements. The Tea Party has identifiable electoral successes in the last round of Federal elections. The Occupy Movement did not come into being until after the last Federal elections. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]


Just 51% of those 18 years of age and over are married. This is a record low. In 2000, 57% of the same age group were married. [WP 12/11]


There is nothing new in the case of Richard Verone in Gaston, North Carolina, at least nothing has been reported of late in the Gaston, Gazette.

Where We Are, Where We See Others and Who Best Reflects Our Views

David Winston, of the Winston Group, has done an interesting piece of research which he has kindly allowed WW to reproduce. Using a national sample, Winston asked respondents to place themselves and other individuals and organizations

  • on an ideological spectrum on which “9” represents Conservative and “1” represents Liberal, and
  • on a spectrum on which “9” means respondents’ views are completely reflected, and “1” means their views are not at all reflected, by the persons or organizations listed.
Americans described their own political ideology as something right of center. Of note is that, when asked who reflects their views, no person or organization on the list received a score better than a 4.56 on the scale of 9.

Spectrum chart



If you have not discovered FactCheck.Org and the Washington Post’s Fact Checker, take a gander. Both do an excellent job of laying bare the truth about a variety of campaign claims.

Peter D. Hart Research Associates

I have known Peter Hart since 1969. We met at the DNC and on the tennis court.

He is my friend, and he is the source of much of what I pass along as my personal “wisdom” about politics.

Recently, he celebrated the 40th anniversary of the company which he formed in 1971, Peter D. Hart Research Associates. It is a premier survey and strategic research firm.

During an evening anniversary celebration, Mark Shields shared the following bits of information with the group.

During this 40-year period Peter’s organization has conducted nearly 7,000 surveys, 6,000 focus groups, and has interviewed nearly 3,000,000 people. (Or as one wag said, 1 person nearly 3,000,000 times).

Peter has, for many years, been the Democratic anchor and pollster for the NBC/WSJ survey.

The quantity of work is quite amazing, but I was struck by two other details as the evening unfolded. First, Peter has drawn together a group of terrific professionals, who guarantee the generational succession of the company, when and if, he decides to slow down. The second observation may be even more important. There are an extraordinary number of people who have worked for this company for multiple decades, making it clear that Peter D. Hart Associates is successful internally, as well as externally.

Congratulations, my friend.

]]> The Republican Nomination tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2011://1.245 2011-12-16T16:59:00Z 2011-12-17T18:09:50Z 22 people have been tempted or have joined the race. 15 people have announced they are not running, quit the race or written it off. 7 people are still running: Michelle Bachmann Newt Gingrich Jon Huntsman Ron Paul Rick Perry...
15 people have announced they are not running, quit the race or written it off.

7 people are still running:

  • Michelle Bachmann
  • Newt Gingrich
  • Jon Huntsman
  • Ron Paul
  • Rick Perry
  • Mitt Romney
  • Rick Santorum
2 is the number of real players at the moment

The Goal – 1,142 Committed Republican Convention Delegates by the time of the Republican National Convention August 27-30, 2012.

Musical Chairs

As the Republican nomination contest has progressed, more Americans (31%) say that their impression of the GOP field has worsened rather than improved (14%). [PEW 12/11]

The leadership of the national Republican nomination battle has moved back and forth since the middle of 2011. At this time, the race has become a contest between two of the candidates, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. It is unlikely that any of the other five candidates will break out before the end of the contest.

First, Romney led and Gingrich was among several also-rans. Then Perry took the lead, Romney roamed in second place, and Gingrich and Cain continued to inhabit the bottom tier.

Romney returned to the lead in September, but Herman Cain had a run, and was essentially neck and neck with Romney, while Gingrich started creeping up a bit. As November dawned, Romney was still in the lead, but by mid-month Gingrich had taken the lead, Romney was a close second, and Cain had started to fade.

In the first week of December, Gingrich took the lead by 15 points over Romney, and Cain collapsed. Romney has now decided that he has to take Gingrich on directly. Gingrich continues to say that he will not attack the others. Except for a little dig here and there, he is doing that. However, he will respond when hit by one of the others.

In the current December NBC/WSJ survey of likely Republican primary voters, Gingrich leads with 40%. Romney is a poor second with 23%, and Ron Paul and Michele Bachman follow, with 9% and 8% respectively.

Assuming that the size of the field will continue to decline, a three way race finds Gingrich with 53%, Romney 31%, and Ron Paul in 3rd with 13%.

And if the race were to be held today between Gingrich and Romney, Gingrich would win with 59% to 36%.

But the bloom may be off Gingrich’s political rose. In the most recent Gallup survey the national race is closing, as are State polls.


The charts below track the movement in this race beginning in July.

First, November through early December.

  Nov 2-6 Nov 13-17 Dec 1-5* Dec 10-14
Gingrich 13% 22% 37% 29%
Romney 22 21 22 24
Paul 6 9 8 10
Perry 11 8 7 5
Bachmann 3 4 6 7
Santorum 2 1 3 4
Huntsman 1 1 1 2
Cain 22 16 -* -
None/No opinion 22 18 14  


[* Cain suspended his campaign part way through this survey period. The second choice of those who had selected Cain was used to compute preferences without him.]

The following chart summarizes polling on this subject from mid-July through October.

Survey

Last date
ofsurvey

Romney Cain Gingrich Perry Paul Bachmann Santorum Huntsman
NBC/WSJ 11/5 28 27 13 10 10 4 2 0
ABC/WP 11/3 25 23 12 14 9 4 1 1
CNN/OpRes 10/16 26 25 8 13 9 6 2 1
ABC/WP 10/2 25 17 9 17 9 7 2 1
Fox News 9/27 23 11 17 19 6 3 3 4
USA/Gall. 9/18 24 5 5 31 13 5 2 1
ABC/WP 9/1 23 3 4 29 8 6 2 1
NBC/WSJ 8/31 23 5 5 38 9 8 3 2
Fox News 8/9 21 6 5 13 6 7 2 2
Gallup 7/24 17 3 3 15 8 11 2 2
NBC/WSJ 7/17 30 5 8 11 8 16 3 2



There is one other “national poll” that, it is claimed, has been quite accurate in the past. It is the Intrade Prediction Market. Here you can buy and sell shares in the prospects of candidates for President (and other offices), i.e., you are investing on the % probability of that event (election of that candidate) occurring.

As of 9:45 a.m. December 16th, here are the bids for shares in various candidate’s prospects. (The higher the bid the more likely the buyer believes the prospects of victory.)

  • Romney 61.6
  • Gingrich 16.2
  • Paul 7.6
  • Huntsman 6.1
  • Perry 3.5
  • Bachmann 1.5
  • Santorum 0.6
If you are interested, go to www.Intrade.com.


One has always needed a scorecard to keep track of either political Party’s primaries and caucuses, but in the case of the 2012 Republican delegate selection process, you also need a special rule book. (Democrats have been here before.)

*Rule #1 – Any State that selects its delegates before February 1, 2012 will be penalized.

*Rule #2 – Other than the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, any State that begins its process before the First Tuesday in March 2012 will be penalized.

*Rule #3 – Any State, other than the four carve-out States noted in Rule #2, that conducts its process before April 1, 2012 must allocate its delegates on a proportional basis.

*The Penalty – Any State that violates these rules will lose 50% of its delegates and alternates.

[* These items are all part of the same Republican National Committee rule, but broken out for the purpose of the following. ]

The Republican primary season is divided into four tranches.

1st tranche – January 3 – 31, 2012

2nd tranche – February 4 – March 3, 2012

3rd tranche – March 6 – 24, 2012

4th tranche – April 3 – June 26, 2012

January 3 – 31, 2012
Iowa (c), New Hampshire (p), South Carolina (p), Florida (p)

Theoretically, all four States will be penalized for violating Rule #1. However, because Iowa’s delegates are not, in fact, selected until later in the process, it is exempt. Florida is also to be penalized for violating Rules #2 and #3. New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida will lose 50% of their delegates. And, Florida’s remaining delegates will be selected on a proportional basis. (NH, SC, and FL are exempt from the proportionality penalty.)

The following represents the state of the race in each of these States at this time.

Candidate Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina Florida*
Gingrich 22 24 42 41
Romney 16 29 23 28
Paul 21 21 9 9
Perry 9 1 7 4
Bachmann 11 4 7 4
Santorum 8 2 2 1
Huntsman 5 11 3 1


* Iowa – PPP 12/11-13/11

* New Hampshire – Insider Advantage 12/12/11

* South Carolina – NBC/Marist 12/6/11

* Florida – NBC/Marist – 12/11/11

February 4 – March 3, 2012
Nevada (c), Maine (c), Colorado (c), Minnesota (c), Missouri (p), Arizona (p), Michigan (p), Washington (c)

Other than Nevada (c) which is exempt, all of the above States are in violation of Rules #2 and #3. All of these States will lose 50% of their delegates, and the remaining delegates must be selected on a proportional basis. (It is possible that the caucus State delegates in this group are selected in the same manner as those in Iowa. They would then be exempt from the 50% loss rule.)

March 6 – 24, 2012
Of the 19 primary and caucus States that commence their processes during this period, their delegates must be allocated on a proportional basis.

April 3 – June 26, 2012
The 21 primaries and caucuses scheduled during this period are free to allocate their delegates proportionally or on the basis of winner take all.

[Note: Any rule established by the Republican National Committee to regulate the delegate selection process (Rules 1-3 above) can be modified by action of the convention prior to the time that delegate votes are cast. Whether and how the convention acts to modify these rules could well depend on the impact such changes might have on the outcome of the nominating process. ]


In gross terms, 345 delegates are selected in the States starting their processes before March 6th, Super Tuesday. On Super Tuesday, 564 delegates will be selected, bringing the total to 909 delegates, 40% of the total. (However, the number of delegates selected before March 6th may be reduced by 50%.)

The Trump Primary

Donald Trump decided not to run for the Republican nomination for President. Instead, he set himself up to be a king maker, so to speak.

For reasons that are not entirely clear, a series of the Republican candidates have chosen to “visit” with Trump at his New York headquarters to seek his “advice.” The group includes Gingrich, Romney (he went in the back door), Bachman, Perry, and Cain. Perhaps the best line from one of the folks who did not make the trek came from Jon Huntsman, who said, “I’m not going to kiss his ring and I’m not going to kiss any other part of his anatomy.”

Donald Trump has decided not to moderate “Trump Debate,” scheduled for December 27th. Trump was to be the sole moderator at the debate in Des Moines, Iowa, sponsored by Newsmax Media & Ion TV. It was not turning out to be a candidate magnet. Only Gingrich and Santorum had agreed to participate. Huntsman, Paul, Romney, Bachmann, and Perry had kindly declined.

The given reason for his withdrawl from the debate was that he was not yet willing to say that he would not be an independent candidate for President. Jay Leno had a different view. He said the debate was canceled for “lack of interest.”

Newt Gingrich

How could it be that Newt Gingrich is doing so well with Republicans for whom family values and a variety of other virtues are so important? 57% of Republicans say they would be less likely to support a candidate who had an extra- marital affair. [PEW 5/11]

The answer may be that they have said to themselves, “So what?” The Republicans are not looking for a minister for their church or for someone who is a proper role model for their children. They want someone who can stand toe-to-toe with President Obama, and make their case in the general election.

Listening to some of the things that come out of Newt Gingrich’s mouth reminds me of a political operative with whom I worked many years ago on multiple campaigns. He also was a person who said just about everything that came to mind, with little filtering. After a while I found that, like many others, I stopped listening to anything he said, and treated each idea as another hair-brained scheme.

A while later I “accidentally” gave some thought to something he had suggested, that I had originally rejected because of the source. I realized that it made a lot of sense, and, in fact, when we put it into play, it had a very positive effect on the project of the moment.

Thereafter, whenever this colleague started to talk, I closed my eyes in an attempt to block out the source. Lo and behold, I came to discover that every X one of his ideas was really terrific.

Similarly, some of what Newt Gingrich says is out of left field, but some of the things he says make sense. The question is whether the far out commentary will make it impossible for the electorate at large to sift through what he has to say and hear that with which they might agree.

Mitt Romney

The Romney campaign’s original plan seems to have been that he would win the nomination because he would be the last person standing. Survey research from the first four selection events, which shows Gingrich leading in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, and closing the gap in New Hampshire, suggests that that strategy has become very high-risk.

As noted in the tables above, Romney’s share of the potential caucus/ primary electorate is simply stagnant.

It does not seem to be enough to look like a President, have a stable family, be a successful businessman, and former public official. He has tried to stay above the fray, but that is clearly not working.

Romney is dealing with the reality that only 29% of Republican primary voters view him as a conservative, while 53% see him as a moderate. At the same time, 57% see Gingrich as a conservative, and 28% seem him as a moderate. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]

It remains to be seen whether Romney can successfully change his style and his message over the next month and a half.

Ron Paul

Ron Paul is not going to be the Republican nominee, but he may have the best organized campaign. He is currently running a distant third, but he has more potential to affect this race than anyone else.

If there is one person who knows what he thinks and always says it, it is Paul. His point of view has not changed in all the years he has been in Congress or from his previous run at the Presidency in 2008. He is clearly the most real anti- government candidate in the field. And who else in the field would stand up in New Hampshire and come out for the right to sell and drink raw milk, an issue in that State?

Paul has now run three times for President. He first ran as Independent in 1988 as a Libertarian, and then in 2008 as a Republican. The net result is that while the size of his support group is not as large as others, he probably has the most dedicated group of supporters.

More so than anyone else in the field, when his time comes to leave the race, as it inevitably will, his unfettered support for one of the other candidates could have a real impact.

One of the best pieces I have read about Paul, is Dan Balz’s column in the December 11, 2011 Washington Post.

And There Went Herman Cain. Or, 4 Weeks in the life of a candidacy

It is hard to imagine that anyone running for President in 2011 would believe that there is any aspect of their life is not fair game once their candidacy becomes real. But, it does appear that Herman Cain thought he was above that kind of scrutiny or that, if it occurred, the public would not care. He also seemed to misunderstand that, if, in fact, you are clueless about aspects of government with which the public thinks you should be familiar, your time as flavor of the month will be short-lived.

* October 24th, Herman Cain was leading the GOP primary pack with 25% of the vote in a CBS/NYT survey.

* October 30th, Cain still leading with 30% of the vote in a Quinnipiac poll.

* October 31st, “Politico” broke the story alleging that Cain had sexually harassed one or more women during his tenure at the National Restaurant Association.

* November 6th, CBS survey finds Cain at 18%, but still leading the pack.

* November 7th-10th, new harassment accusers surface and the first accuser is identified.

* Cain continues to demonstrate that there is a lot he does not know about the Federal government in general, and foreign affairs in particular.

* November 13th, Cain garners support from 14% of GOP primary voters and is now in 3rd place in CNN/OR survey, 10 points behind the leader.

* November 28th, a woman comes forward alleging a 13-year extramarital affair with Cain.

* November 30th, Rasmussen survey has Cain at 8, trailing the leader by 30 points (Rasmussen not a favorite of WW but the only poll available).

* December 3rd, Cain suspends his campaign, effectively ending it.


While debates have long been important in Presidential campaigns, they may be playing a unique role in the GOP nomination fight in this election. Most of the real-time audiences have not been all that large. However, the information that flows from them to those paying attention and those not paying attention is all but over whelming.

Whether your primary source of information is local newspaper or TV, one of the cable networks, the Yahoo News Service, or one of a variety of other internet sources, it is hard to escape the replay of segments or commentary on who won or lost, each debate.

At least at this stage of the game, the new information flow is serving as a substitute for the role early State organization efforts have played historically.

Of the 13 media-sponsored Republican nomination debates to date, the largest audience – 7.58 million viewers – was the ABC/DesMoine Register/ Yahoo News debate on December 8th. This was the most watched debate since the Fox- carried debate on September 22nd.

Republican nominating process Debates with one or more media sponsors
5/5/11 Fox News - 3.26 million viewers
6/13/11 CNN - 3.2 million viewers
8/11/11 Fox News - 5 million + viewers
9/7/11 NBC/MSNBC/Politico - 5,400,000 viewers
9/12/11 CNN - 3,600,000 viewers
9/22/11 Fox/Google - 6,100,000 viewers
10/11/11 Bloomberg/Washington Post – no ratings available (Bloomberg does not subscribe to Nielsen)
10/18/11 CNN - 5.46 million viewers
11/9/11 CNBC - 3.33 million viewers
11/12/11 CBS/National Journal - 5.3 million viewers
11/22/11 CNN - 3.6 million viewers
12/10/11 ABC/DesMoines Register/Yahoo News/Iowa GOP, 7.58 million viewers, 2.1 million viewers (25-54)
12/15/11 FOX/Iowa GOP [data not available at press time]


]]> President Obama tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2011://1.246 2011-12-16T16:58:00Z 2011-12-17T18:21:30Z The President is less than one year away from the day on which the American public will give him his report card for his first term. As he approaches that day, the public’s grade for the job he has done...
The President’s current job approval rating in Gallup is 42%. Following is the list of 8.

  Approve Disapprove
Eisenhower 78 13
GW Bush (II) 63 34
Reagan 54 38
Clinton 51 44
G Bush (I) 50 41
Carter 50 35
Nixon 50 37
Obama 42 50



Following are several additional cuts at the President’s job approval rating.

  NBC/WSJ NYT/CBS WP/ABC CNN/ORC
December 2011 44/61% 44/46% (CBS) --- ---
November 2011 44/51% --- 44/53% 44/54%
October 2011 44/51% 46/46% 42/54% 54/52%
August 2011 --- 48/47% --- 44/54%
July 2011 47/48% --- 47/48% 45/54%
June 2011 62/29% 48/43% (CBS) 47/49% 48/48%


The only major survey that shows the President having a higher than disapproval rating is PEW, which, in its December survey, has the President’s job approval number at 46% to 43% disapproval.


The most recent NBC/WSJ survey found that 45% have favorable feelings about the President, while 42% have unfavorable feelings about him. There has not been much, if any, movement in this measurement since August. This matches up with a 48% favorable/49% unfavorable result in the December WP/ABC.

On his handling of the economy, disapproval of the President’s performance remains at 57% to 40% approval. The last time the President had a positive performance rating on his handling of the economy was in September 2009, when his performance on this measurement was 50% approval to 42% disapproval. The next month it was even, and he has been in negative territory ever since. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]


The current NBC/WSJ survey gave respondents the opportunity to identify accomplishments and failures of the Obama administration by selecting from a fixed list of options. The top two accomplishments were in the foreign policy/military category, and the top two failures were failing to improve economic conditions and increasing government spending.

Accomplishments - Top 4 (over 10%)  
Killing Osama bin laden 27%
Bring troops home from Iraq 25%
Preventing another economic depression 13%
Passing the health care law 11%
   
Failures - Top 5 (over 10%)  
Unable to improve economic conditions 24%
Increasing government spending 18%
Not providing strong leadership 16%
Passing the health care law 13%
Keeping American troops in Afghanistan 12%



The health care law passed by the Congress and signed by the President during Obama’s first term continues to be a problem for the President. It is treated as “his” healthcare law and its popularity has not improved.

46% (36% strongly) favor eliminating the law. 40% oppose its elimination. The number favoring elimination has not changed since January 2011. The number opposing has dropped from 46%. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]


President Obama has chosen the course of his Presidency. Rather than use Washington to achieve his goals, he derided the way Washington works and many of its players. He has chosen not to regularly engage with, let alone court, the Members of Congress in his own Party or the other Party. It does not appear that he has maintained the strength of connection to the electorate that he achieved in winning election in 2008.

]]> The Presidential General Election tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2011://1.247 2011-12-16T16:57:00Z 2011-12-17T18:27:12Z At this time a Ouija (pronounced weegie) board may be as useful in predicting the outcome of the 2012 general election as any series of polls, opinions and other pieces of “hard” evidence. With that said, here are some thoughts...

Rather than rely on a Quija board, WW asked Charlie Cook how he would describe the 2012 Presidential election campaign. As always, Charlie has a way of describing an election in plain English.

“The answer depends on two questions. Is the election going to be a referendum or a choice, will it be about economics or demographics? A referendum probably means it’s about the economy. In the absence of a strong turnaround, that’s tough for President Obama. A choice of two competing visions and directions could well be a fairer fight that could go either way. The Democratic argument about demographics is a hard sell. While African American turnout may well remain very high, among young people and Latino voters, replicating the intensity of 2008 is a real challenge.”


There is at least one thing that Obama has going for him in the coming general election. A substantially larger number of people (39%) are quite confident that he has the personal characteristics to be President, versus those who say they are quite confident that either Gingrich (17%) or Romney (20%) have those characteristics.

On the negative side, 34% are not at all confident that Obama has the personal characteristics to be President. Only 31% have this view about Romney but 42% lack confidence in Gingrich. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]


The Obama campaign is growing increasingly optimistic, according the to the headline in a recent Washington Post article, which was written following a briefing for reporters by the campaign’s leadership.

Apparently, one of their reasons for optimism is that a bruising GOP nomination fight will leave the Republican candidate battered. The other reason is that it is starting to appear that Newt Gingrich may be the eventual nominee. A warning – Be careful for what you wish for.

At the briefing, the campaign outlined 5 potential paths to victory.

* Win Florida and its 29 electoral votes.

* Sweep Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Iowa

* Win Ohio and Iowa

* Repeat his 2008 performance and win North Carolina and Virginia

* Win Arizona

There is little question that the campaign is building an election team that is unparalleled in Presidential campaign history. One area in which it will certainly not be equaled or beaten is in the use of technology. For those of you who are interested in the campaign infrastructure, I recommend the article by Julianna Goldman in Bloomberg 12/14/11.

From all appearances, they will be able to fund the campaign they want to run.


A generic Republican candidate for President beats Obama 45% to 43%. However, he bests Romney by 47% to 45%. Obama beats Gingrich 51% to 40%, and Paul by 50% to 37%. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]

When potential voters are pushed on the question of whether they are certain to vote for Obama, 34% said yes. Another 37% say they will vote against him, and 27% will cast their vote based on who is the GOP nominee. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]

49% of self-identified Republicans/Leaners are more enthusiastic about voting in the general election, as compared to 44% of Democrats/Leaners. [Gallup 12/11]


During the first week of December 2011, USA/Today/Gallup conducted a survey of registered voters in 12 swing States: Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. It is matched with a national Gallup survey of national registered voters.

While Obama bests Romney 47% to 46% among national registered voters, he trails Romney among the swing State registered voters, 48% to 43%. He leads Gingrich among national registered voters 50% to 44%, but loses to Gingrich 48% to 45% among swing State registered voters.

]]> The Congress tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2011://1.248 2011-12-16T16:56:00Z 2011-12-17T18:47:06Z There is yet another example of Congressional action that puts the lie to claims that the Congress can not get anything done. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) wants to establish a Climate Service similar to the Weather Service....
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) wants to establish a Climate Service similar to the Weather Service. Currently, data on the subject of climate is scattered through various NOAA departments. NOAA wants to establish the equivalent of a “one-stop shop” for climate information. The idea is supported by the person who was the head of NOAA for eight years under President George Bush.

There was no request of new funding for the new proposed entity. The funding would come from the funds already received by the various shops that would be combined.

The Senate approved most of what NOAA requested in its 2012 budget. The House approved none of it, and it was nowhere to be found in the final agreement on the budget.

According to the Washington Post, “a House Appropriations committee release implied that Congress had saved $322 million in fiscal year 2012 by nixing the climate service.” An interesting example of the accounting conventions to which the Congress subscribes.


Through November 30th, the 112th Congress has been less productive than any Congress at least since 1991. The House has passed 326 bills, the Senate 368 bills, and the President has signed 62 into law.

The previous low in each category since 1991 was

The House, 483 - 1995
The Senate, 346 - 1995
Bills signed, 88 1995


75% of Americans rate the accomplishments of this year’s Congress as one of the worst (42%) or below average 33%. Just 1% call it one of the best.

In a close race, 69% disapprove of the job being done by Republicans in Congress, while 62% disapprove of the job being done by the Democrats.

By 45% to 43% the public prefers that the new Congress be controlled by Democrats rather than Republicans. The Democrats have been slightly ahead since October. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]


How do Americans rate the honesty and integrity of Members of Congress? 64% rate them low or very low. This puts Members of Congress below lobbyists, telemarketers, and car salespeople. In fact, this rating is the lowest of the 21 professions tested by Gallup. This is by far the lowest rating on this question in the last 35 years. [Gallup 12/11]


In the last NBC/WSJ survey, respondents were asked to select from a list what most disappoints them about the current Congress. Here is their answer.

Lots of partisan disagreement with nothing getting done 28
Republican leadership is unwilling to compromise with Democrats 17
Not enough being done to fix the economy
 13
They have not gone far enough in cutting federal spending
 12
Special interests have too much control
 10
Obama is unwilling to compromise with the Republican leadership 6
They have gone too far in cutting critical government programs 5



67% now say that most current Members of Congress should be voted office in the 2012 election . This is the highest number ever recorded by Pew Research . 53% had that view in 2010. 33% do think their own Member of Congress should be re-elected, just slightly more than the 31% who thought that in 2010, when 58 Members of Congress lost re-election bids. [Pew 12/11]

The U.S. Senate

There has been only one change in the structure of the Senate race since the November issue of the Watch. North Dakota has moved from Leaning Republican to Toss-Up.


The U.S. Senate

  • Democrats 51
  • Republicans 47
  • Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
Here is how the 33 Senate elections -- 23 Democratic incumbents (includes 2 Independents), 10 Republican incumbents -- look to me at this time . (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. Incumbent in office) Underlining reflects retirement.

Safe Democratic (8) Leaning Democratic (7) Toss-Up (10) Leaning Republican (3) Safe Republican (5)
California Connecticut Hawaii Arizona Indiana
Delaware Florida
 Massachusetts Maine Mississippi
Maryland Michigan
 Missouri Texas Tennessee
Minnesota Ohio
 Montana
Utah
New Jersey Pennsylvania Nebraska
Wyoming
New York Washington
 Nevada

Rhode Island West Virginia New Mexico  

  No. Dakota  
    Virginia  

  Wisconsin  


  Democrats Republicans
Seats not up in 2012 30 37
Safe in 2012 8 5
Leaning in 2012 7 3
Total 45 45
Toss-ups 10 (2R/8D)  


The House of Representatives

WW has regularly reprinted the “House Dashboard” published by the Cook Political Report. The data below, from January 20, 2011, is from the Dashboard. However, the Dashboard is not being published at this time because of the uncertainties caused by re-districting. Therefore, the chart below reflects the Cook’s current Competitive House Race Chart through December 8, 2011.

The U.S. House of Representatives

  • Republicans 242
  • Democrats 192
  • Vacancy 1 (D)

 1/20/11 6/21/11 8/12/11 11/16/11 12/8/11
TOTAL Dem 193 --- --- --- ---
Solid Dem 150 --- --- --- ---
Likely Dem 27 22 22 18 18
Lean Dem 12 13 17 13 14
Toss-up 10 17 15 20 21
D 4 6 6 8 8
R 6 11 9 12 13
Lean GOP 15 18 20 21 21
Likely GOP 38 42 40 31 29
Solid GOP 183 --- --- --- ---
TOTAL GOP 242 --- --- --- ---


[As always, thanks to “The Cook Political Report.” ] 


The Rothenberg Political Report has posted a report that deals with the entire House. It reports the following:

Safe Democrat 164
Competitive 80
   Lean Dem 42
   Lean GOP 38
Safe Republican 191


The net result of this projection is that Republicans will hold 229 seats after the election and the Democrats will hold 206 seats.

]]> Restaurant: Shanghai Village tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2011://1.249 2011-12-16T16:55:00Z 2011-12-17T18:53:50Z Bethesda, Maryland: There is nothing fancy about this restaurant, but the food is worth the “trip.”

Shanghai Village

4929 Bethesda Avenue
Bethesda, Maryland 20814
301-654-7787
301-654-7788 Bob, Rita, Debbie, and Maureen visited the Shanghai Village on a Sunday night.

There is nothing fancy about this restaurant, but the food is worth the “trip.” There are a large number of tables, ranging from two to twelve people. Total seats are approximately 100. The majority of the chairs are straight, wooden chairs, although a number of tables, including ours, were surrounded with folding card table chairs.

This was a Bob-directed meal, although others in our party were solicited for their favorite dishes.

When the serving person approached our table, having dropped off water, she asked if we had any appetizer preferences. Bob asked her the length of preparation time for Peking Duck. She responded that it took 20 minutes. Bob asked her to imediately go to the kitchen and order Peking Duck, even before we placed the appetizer order. At first she hesitated, I assume thinking that he was kidding. When it became clear that he was serious, and that we were not going to order anything else until she place the Peking Duck order, she left the table and did just that.

Thereafter, each time she approached the table, someone in our group reminded her of the time remaining in her 20 minute estimate. The Duck was delivered at the 17th minute.

Three soups were ordred, “Hot and Sour,” “Wonton,” and “Egg Drop.” Other dishes were “Tung Tin Shrimp,” “Chicken Chow Mein,” “Combination Vegetables,” and “House Fried Rice.”

All of the dishes, including the Peking Duck, were very tasty.

The men’s room was clean and more than adequate. The floors are dark brown. The walls are covered with mid-sized white tiles, except for a series of large black tiles that adorn the walls in a line at shoulder height. The commode, urinal, and washbasin are all in the same area, with no walls separating them, although the urinal is in a little alcove.

Bob found parking on the street, but there is apparently ample parking in the rear of the restaurant.

]]> Follow up to "What is the Name ..." tag:www.mikeswashingtonwatch.com,2011://1.236 2011-11-19T17:00:00Z 2011-11-19T13:58:49Z One of WWs readers suggested that WW should provide an opportunity for readers to suggest solutions to the issues raised in the last issue, and include them in the next issue of the Watch. It seems a good idea, so... mberman@dubersteingroup.com.

Richard Verone – A change of heart

Richard Verone has had a change of heart. You will recall from the last issue of the Watch that Verone robbed a bank for $1 in Gaston, North Carolina. He then waited for the police to come and arrest him. His stated intention was to represent himself in court, “take the sentence handed down to him and take advantage of the food, housing and medical care that would be available in jail.”

His behavior and circumstances went viral, and journalists from this country, France, England, and Indonesia called the paper to learn more about the case.

He has now been in jail for five months and clearly has had a change of heart. He is now represented by Counsel, has appealed to the ACLU for a letter of support and legal assistance, and is looking forward to a jury trial.

Verone’s attorney has wisely counseled him not to talk to anyone before trial, but it appears he has now decided to become a spokesperson for an “obsolete” health care system. In a letter he wrote to the reporter at the Gazette who wrote the original story, Verone says in part, “My wish is to expose a health care system to the American people that is obsolete in its structure and I can do this by using my case.” Further he wrote, “ I would not consider this but the importance of this case leads me to be a subordinate to Americans with inadequate medical care.”

WW talked with the reporter who did both the original and follow up stories, Diane Turbyfill. She has not been able to talk to Verone or has she been able to get any information from his lawyer.

Stay tuned.


One reader of the Watch questioned the validity of the statement in the last issue of the Watch that the wealthiest 400 people in America control more wealth than the 150 million Americans at the other end of economic spectrum. The Watch cited The Washington Post. In particular, the statement was included in an Op Ed by Sally Kohn, who is identified as a political commentator and grass-roots strategist. She is also a grassroots organizer and appears on a number of cable channels on a regular basis.

The Watch went looking for the source of that statement.

The first place we found the claim was in a speech given by Michael Moore in Madison,Wisconsin in March 2011. In that speech he said that 400 Americans have more wealth than half of all Americans.

Apparently Moore must have been questioned about the claim because on his website he posted a link to a blog post by Dave Johnson of the Commonweal Institute. Johnson wrote in 2007 that the combined net worth of the 400 wealthiest Americans – citing Forbes Magazine – was $1.5 trillion, and that the combined net worth of the poorer 50% of American households was $1.6 trillion. The problem of the above citation is that it does not make the point.

Two days after his Madison speech, Moore posted another item on his website that used figures for 2009. This item correctly quotes Forbes Magazine as stating that the net worth of the 400 wealthiest was $1.27 trillion.

As to the 150 million Americans at the other end of the economic spectrum, Moore cites the Federal Reserve Board, which finds that the overall networth of all households in American in 2009 was $53.1 trillion. Moore then cites an economist, by the name of Edward Wolff at New York University, who claims that in July 2009, the poorest 60% of U.S. household possessed 2.3% of the nation’s total net worth. Moore then multiplied the total net worth of $53.1 trillion by 2.3% and ended up with $1.22 trillion as being the hands of the lowest 60% of U.S. households, and therefore 50% of all Americans, would be less than the $1.27 trillion in control of the wealthiest 400 people.

Forbes Magazine says that the net worth of the top 400 people in September 2010 was $1.37 trillion. The Federal Reserve estimate of the overall net worth of U.S. households was $54.6 trillion in 2010. If you multiply $54.6 trillion by 2.3% that comes to $1.26 trillion. (WW’s use of the 2.3% number from a year earlier distorts the finding to some extent, although it is not likely that the number grew between 2009 and 2010.)

The bottom line is that there is data available that justifies the quote in the Kohn article. But the reality is that it is based on estimates by Forbes Magazine, academic institutions, and government agencies which are less than precise.

[Note: I should have written to Sally Kohn when the question was first raised. Unfortunately, I did not. I did email Sally Kohn on November 16th as this was being written.]


For any number of years there has been an argument raging as to whether the official poverty figures put out by the Census Bureau are adequate. One of the principal complaints has been that the data used by the Bureau does not take into account various government programs designed to help those in need.

The Census Bureau has now released a Supplement Poverty Measure using different standards. While there was some expectation that the new calculation would lead to a drop in the number of folks in poverty, just the opposite has occurred.

The official 2010 poverty rate, which was 15.2%, has now been raised to 16%. There are 49.1 million people living in poverty, compared to the 46.2 million in the earlier report.

One of the largest jumps is among those 65 years of age and older. Under the original, official estimate, 9% of those in that age group live in poverty. Under the Supplemental version, 15.9% of seniors fall into that class.

There is also information included in the report that shows what would happen to the poverty rate if certain public assistance programs were eliminated.

If the earned income tax-credit (designed to off-set social security taxes) is eliminated, the poverty level jumps to 18%. If SNAP (food stamps) is eliminated, the poverty level grows to 17.7%. If the school lunch program is ended, the poverty level grows to 16.9%. [WP 11/8/11,NYT 11/12/11]


In 1984, the median net worth of households headed by persons 35 years of age and younger was $11,521. In 2009, it was $3,662, a drop of 68%.

On the other hand, the 1984 median net worth of households headed by someone 65 and older was $120,457. In 2009, it was $170,494, an increase of 42%.

Thus, a 10-to-1 net worth advantage enjoyed by households headed by those 65 years and older in 1984, has grown to a 47-to-1 advantage in 2009. [PEW 11/7/11]


The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (it backs the pension benefits of 44 million private sector workers and retirees) has $81 billion in assets with which to cover $107 billion in pension obligations. [Fox 11/16/11]


Of the 14 million people unemployed in the 3rd quarter of 2011, based on the basic BLS figure, 31.8% had been unemployed for a year or more. [NatJ 11/11]


21.2% of Americans reported that they did not have enough money to buy the food they or their families needed in October. This is only the 2nd time since January 2008 when more than 20% reported this need. [Gallup 11/10/11]


22% of U.S. adults rate their personal finances as poor. This is the highest number recorded since 2001, when Gallup began asking this question. 48% say their circumstance is getting worse. [Gallup 10/11]


76% of Americans agree (60% strongly) that the “current economic structure of the country is out of balance and favors a very small proportion of the rich over the rest of the country.”

36% say that their personal economic situation has gotten worse in the last year, and 28% believe the economy will get worse in the next year.


To add to their misery, 68% of Americans believe that “crime is worsening” in the United States. [Gallup 10/11]


The “Occupy Wall Street” movement has continued and spread around the country. Local authorities are beginning to lose patience, and it is not clear where the movement goes from here. One risk for the movement is that, as its activity begins to adversely impact the lives of the people in the area where they are protesting, the public will become increasingly less sympathetic to the movement. [NBC/WSJ 11/11]

]]>