October 20, 2008 7:55 AM
Tracking The Presidential Campaign
A number of organizations maintain daily tracking polls. While some knowledgeable sources question the reliability of these surveys, they are the best way we have of tracking the election on a "daily" basis.WW has chosen to follow the Gallop and Hotline/Diego tracking polls. Each of the surveys accumulates 3 days worth of interviews. If the date in the chart below is September 30, it means that interviews were conducted on September 28, 29 and 30. Gallop accumulates 2700 interviews (margin of error +/- 2 points). Hotline/Diego accumulates 900 interviews (margin of error +/- 3.3 points). [RV - registered voters; LV - Likely voters] [O - Obama; M - McCain]
| Date | Gallop | Hotline/Diego |
| 9/24 | Tie RV | O + 4 RV |
| 9/25 | O + 3 RV | O
+ 7 RV |
| 9/26 Pres Debate | O + 5 RV | O
+ 5 RV |
| 9/27 | O
+ 8 RV |
O
+ 5 RV |
| 9/28 | O
+ 8 RV |
O + 5 RV |
| 9/29 | O + 6 RV | O + 6 RV |
| 9/30 | O + 4 RV | O + 5 RV |
| 10/1 | O + 5 RV | O + 5 RV |
| 10/2 VP Debate | O + 7 RV | O + 6 RV |
| 10/3 | O + 8 RV | O + 7 LV |
| 10/4 | O + 7 RV | O + 7 LV |
| 10/5 | O + 8 RV | O + 6 LV |
| 10/6 | O + 9 RV | O + 2 LV |
| 10/7 Pres Debate | O + 11 RV | O + 1 LV |
| 10/8 | O + 11 RV | O + 6 LV |
| 10/9 | O + 10 RV | O + 7 LV |
| 10/10 | O + 9 RV | O + 10 LV |
| 10/11 | O + 7 RV | O + 7 RV |
| O + 6 LV | O + 8 LV | |
| 10/12 | O + 10 RV | ----- |
| O + 7 LV | O + 6 LV | |
| 10/13 | O + 9 RV | ----- |
| O + 10 LV | O + 6 LV | |
| 10/14 | O + 7 RV | ----- |
| O + 8 LV | O + 8 LV | |
| 10/15 Pres Debate | O + 6 RV | ----- |
| O + 6 LV | O + 8 LV | |
| 10/16 | O + 6 LV | O + 10 LV |
A rough averaging of national polls, including the tracking polls, shows Obama with a 6-7 point lead.
