Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

October 20, 2008 7:54 AM

The Electoral College

A review of the electoral vote over the past 4 Presidential elections provides a basis for the reality that John McCain has a higher hill to climb than Barack Obama.

135 electoral votes - Republican won these States in last 4 elections

64 electoral votes - Republican won these States in 3 of last 4 elections

75 electoral votes - Republicans and Democrats each won 2 of last 4 elections

16 electoral votes - Democrat won these states in 3 of last 4 elections

248 electoral votes - Democrats won these states in last 4 elections

Obama is challenging McCain in States with 39 electoral votes out of the 135 which Republicans won in the last 4 elections.

McCain is not challenging Obama in any of the States of the 248 electoral votes that Democrats won in last 4 elections.



Various news organizations maintain electoral vote counts that are periodically reassessed and updated. Each organization has its own formula for deciding which candidate will receive a State's electoral votes. The chart below summarizes a number of those reports as of October 17, 2008: (WW has taken the liberty of lumping together firm and leaning counts to the extent those categories are used by a given organization.)

Obama Toss-UP McCain
CNN 277 87 174
538.com 382 -- 156
MSNBC 264 111 163
NYTimes 277 76 185
Pollster.com 312 70 255
RCP 286 94 158
USA Today 248 155 135




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