2008 Presidential Campaign: The Final Act Has Begun of that Long Running Play

The financial crisis that has beset the country and the world has swept aside all other issues. 52% of Americans say "the economy and jobs," when asked what is the most important issue facing the country. In April 2008, only 23% listed it as the most important issue. The war in Iraq is now listed 3rd, by only 6%, behind the second place finisher, health care, at 6%.

The stock market has been heading down hill for the last year. On October 9, 2007, the Dow Jones stood at 14,198. After hitting a day-end low of 8451, the market one year later stood at 8579, a drop of just over 40%. As of October 17, the DOW stands at 9096 at mid-day.

Most folks do not appreciate how important the underlying credit system is to just about everything financial. Businesses from Main Street to Wall Street, and non-profits, including universities and colleges, found that the credit on which they depended for regular operations was frozen. Inventory could not be purchased, salaries could not be paid.

Long-existing investment banks and commercial banks no longer exist as stand-alone organizations. Investment banks became commercial, as well as investment banks. Big banks are being gobbled up by even bigger banks. The venerable Merrill Lunch was acquired by Bank of America.

One in six homeowners with mortgages find that their homes are worth less than the remaining principal on the mortgage. [WP 10/9].

77% believe the direction of the country is on the wrong track, which is the highest number holding that view during the current Administration. [NBC/WSJ 10/08] Said another way, only 7% are satisfied with the direction of the country. [Gallop 10/08]

159,000 jobs were lost in September, the worst month in 5 years. Of equal significance, but not getting the same attention, 6.1 million Americans are now working part-time because their hours were cut or they could not find full-time jobs. This is the highest number reported since 1933. [NYT]

50% say that economic conditions are poor in the country today. This is up 21 points in the past month. 90% think conditions are getting worse, a jump of 12 points in the past month. [Gallup 10/08]

For the first time since 1976, more than half of Americans believe they are worse off now than they were a year ago. Looking to next year, 56% are worried about their personal financial situation. 76% say it is a bad time to be looking for a job. [Gallop 10/08; NBC/WSJ 10/08]

66% say that the crisis of the last month has hurt their current financial situation, and 70% believe it will continue to hurt them in the long run. [USAToday/Gallop 10/08]

---

At a time when the people of this country are desperate to have a leader in whom they can have confidence, the cupboard is bare.

President Bush has an job approval rating of 25%. This is the lowest of his tenure (the high point was 90% in September 2001), and only 1 point higher than President Nixon as his low point, and only 3 points higher than President Truman when he was in the trough.

Specifically, on the question of his job performance on the economy, Bush's work is disapproved by 74%. 58% feel negatively about him personally. [Gallop 10/08; NBC/WSJ 10/08]

Compared to other two-term Presidents in the last half century, Bush continues to remain far behind the others in the approval of the public at this stage of their tenures.



28% of Americans say the President is responsible for the current financial crisis. Wall Street and the banks are blamed by 21%. 8% blame the Federal Government in Washington and a similar number blame the Congress.

---

The Congress is in even worse shape than the President in the mind of Americans. Only 13% approve of its work, the lowest rating since 1994, except for June of this year. [NBC/WSJ 10/08] The net result is that neither House Speaker Nancy Pelosi or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have the credibility to be national public leaders to whom the public will turn. On the other hand, they are both showing significant success as the leaders of their separate institutions.

Finally, neither of the two candidates for President, Senator Barack Obama or Senator John McCain, have so stepped up as to be able to become de facto leaders in this time of crisis.

---

At least nationally, the Democratic Party enjoys a self-identification edge. 44% identify themselves as Democrats, while 35% say they are Republicans. (Both numbers include so-called leaners.)

---

84% of Americans believe that the next President will face challenges that are more serious than what other new Presidents have faced. 44% say these challenges are more serious than any faced by a new President in the last 50 years. [Gallop 10/08]

---

There is a certain amount of schizophrenia when it comes to the broad role of government and the kind of President folks want.

47% believe government should do more to solve problems and meet the needs of people. But 45% say the government is doing too many things that are better left to business and individuals.

What do Americans want in the approach to be taken by the new President?

• 38% say the country needs a President who will provide changes from current Bush Administration policies, and a government that is into more active oversight in areas such as housing and financial transactions


• 58% call for a President who will provide changes from current policies in Congress and deal with waste and fraud in the system to protect taxpayers from government inefficiency and pork-barrel spending. [NBC/WSJ 10/08]

---

How do John McCain and Barack Obama measure up against each other in the minds of American voters?

Which candidate for president is likely to be better at:



Which candidate:



McCain is seen as making decisions too quickly, and Obama is seen as not making them quickly enough. [WashPost/ABC 10/08; CBS 10/08]

---

John McCain's Palin play has played out. The infatuation with Governor Sarah Palin has come to an end. While her selection did serve McCain by enabling him to make peace with the conservative wing of the Republican Party, it has done nothing for him beyond that service. However, make no mistake, that was an important assistance to McCain going forward from the Republican convention.

On one level, Palin and Obama's pick, Senator Joe Biden, have had a similar impact. 25% of potential voters say they are more likely to vote for McCain because Palin is on the ticket. 24% make the same statement about the selection of Biden by Obama. [WP/ABC 10/08]

But there is where it ends. While 74% say that Biden is qualified to be Vice President and to be next in line for the Presidency, only 41% say that about Palin. [NBC/WSJ 10/08]

Return to Home Page